Wall of clouds approach the west coast and along the east coast as monsoon shows signs of a revival after a fortnight-long hiatus. | Photo Credit: www.meteoblue.com

After a frustrating fortnight-long lull, the monsoon is finally showing signs of breaking free, aided belatedly by the fading influence of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that promised much but delivered little. Its delayed legacy is now unfolding in the form of renewed seasonal rains over Mumbai and the west coast.

With the Arabian Sea branch regaining structure and a potentially game-changing Bay of Bengal low-pressure are in the making, the monsoon appears poised for its most meaningful advance since onset, offering relief to parched regions and reviving hopes for a more balanced rainfall distribution across the heart of the country.

Wall of clouds

Satellite imagery on Monday revealed a well-organised wall of monsoon clouds advancing towards the west coast from Ratnagiri and Panaji southward through Mangaluru, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Mumbai, however, remained under patchier cloud cover. Across Kerala, rain bands stretching from Thrissur to Thiruvananthapuram bore a striking resemblance to dynamics typically seen during monsoon onset.

Bay waking up 

Simultaneously, on the eastern flank of the peninsula, towering rain and thunderclouds were building along the Bay of Bengal coast between Kolkata and Visakhapatnam. The activity marks the likely genesis of the season’s first cyclonic circulation or low-pressure area, a long-awaited development that could dramatically improve rainfall prospects across East, Central and West India during the week.

Rain-deficit zones

The timing couldn’t have been more significant. Many of these regions rank among the season’s worst rain-deficit zones, even as an emerging El Niño gathers strength over the equatorial Pacific, threatening to undermine monsoon performance later in the season. The fresh pulse of moisture is expected to benefit West Bengal; Odisha; Chhattisgarh; Vidarbha; East and West Madhya Pradesh; Konkan including Mumbai, and south Gujarat. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh during the next seven days, and over East Madhya Pradesh for five days.

Heavy falls for west 

Further west, Konkan and Goa (including Mumbai), are set for a sustained wet spell, with isolated heavy rainfall likely over the next seven days. Madhya Maharashtra could see isolated heavy falls on Tuesday. Scattered rainfall is forecast across east Gujarat; Madhya Maharashtra; Marathwada; and Saurashtra and Kutch through the week, while rainfall coverage over Konkan and Goa is expected to expand to fairly widespread or widespread levels from Tuesday onwards. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are likely over Konkan and Goa as well as Marathwada for the next four days, and over Madhya Maharashtra for up to five days.

Revival from south

To the south, where every major monsoon revival typically gathers momentum, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over Coastal Karnataka; Kerala and Mahe; Lakshadweep; and Telangana throughout the coming week. North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema are likely to join the wet spell from Thursday, while Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam may see an increase in rainfall activity later in the week.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are forecast to receive isolated to scattered rainfall through the next seven days. Similar conditions are expected intermittently over interior Karnataka; Rayalaseema; and Coastal Andhra Pradesh as the monsoon circulation strengthens.

Published on June 22, 2026