Nifty 50 (24,051) and Nifty Bank (55,913) snapped a six week decline by posting a notable gain of 5.9 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively. For both indices, this is the biggest weekly gain since the first week of February 2021, an indication that the buyers could be coming back strongly.

FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) have cut down net short on both index futures and index call options. While this may not be as much as a positive signal as a fresh long build-up would have been, it shows that the downside expectations are being moderated at the least.

Here’s our analysis of futures and options data of both Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank index. 

Nifty 50

Nifty futures (April) (24,101) rallied to hit a one-month high of 24,120 on Friday before closing the session at 24,101. It has now closed comfortably above the 21-day moving average, adding to the brewing bullish sentiment.

As the contract ended 5.9 per cent higher last week, the outstanding Open Interest (OI) of April futures decreased from 214 lakh contracts to 193 lakh contracts. This denotes shorts exiting the system. 

With respect to options, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of April inched up from 0.95 to 1.03 over the past week. While the outright number might appear neutral, an increase in ratio shows that traders sold relatively greater number of put options during the period. Participants write puts when they hold positive bias.

The positioning in the derivatives segment for Nifty, as indicated by aforementioned numbers, hints that the ongoing rally can continue. Nifty futures can extend the upswing to 24,500, a potential hurdle. A breakout of this can lift it to 25,000.

That said, we cannot reject the possibility of a corrective decline, particularly after a sharp rally. If such a correction occurs, the contract can moderate to 23,600. A breach of this can drag it to 23,250. 

Until 23,600 and 23,250 are safe, the bulls will have a case to build on last week’s upward push. However, a breach of 23,250 might lead to the battle being lost to the bears. In such a scenario, a retest of 22,500 cannot be ruled out.

Given the aforesaid considerations, it may not be ideal for traders to initiate longs at the current level. It would be wise to wait for a dip or a fresh breakout. 

Strategy: If Nifty futures (April) breaks out of 24,200, go long with a stop-loss at 23,800. Book profits at 25,000. After buying, when the contract rises to 24,700, raise the stop-loss to 24,400.

Alternatively, instead of surpassing 24,200, if Nifty futures (April) starts to decline, initiate buy at 23,600 with a stop-loss at 23,200. When the contract rises to 24,200 and 24,700, tighten the stop-loss to 23,800 and 24,400 respectively. Exit at 25,000.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank futures (April) (56,106), too, marked a one-month high of 56,129.80 on Friday. It has overcome the barrier at 55,000 and the price is now above the 21-day moving average. 

While the contract rose 8.2 per cent over the last week, the outstanding OI fell from 24.7 lakh contracts to 21 lakh contracts, showing short covering. But the PCR of April options stood at 0.85, unchanged on a weekly basis.

The positioning in futures and options market for Nifty Bank futures might not be as bullish as for Nifty futures but its strong relative out-performance shows good buying interests.

Going ahead, Nifty Bank futures could retest 54,125, its 21-day moving average. The downswing might even extend to 53,400. Nevertheless, we expect the contract to resume the rally by rebounding on either 54,125 or 53,400. 

Once the uptrend resumes, Nifty Bank futures can see a run towards 59,000. A breakout of this can take it to 60,000. However, if the support at 53,400 is invalidated, the contract might resume the downtrend and might slip again to 50,500. Support below this is 50,000.  

Strategy: Buy if Nifty Bank futures (April) breaks out of 56,300 and keep a stop-loss at 55,000. When the contract touches 58,000, move the stop-loss to 56,900. Liquidate at 59,000.

In case Nifty Bank futures (April) drops to 54,125, go long with a stop-loss at 53,000. When the contract rises to 56,300 and 58,000, tighten the stop-loss to 55,000 and 56,900 respectively. Exit at 59,000.

Published on April 11, 2026