Prices of precious metals dropped last week in the international market. Gold ($4,540.70/ounce) and silver ($76/ounce) were down 3.7 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively.

However, in the domestic market, there was an uptick in price due to the increase in import customs duty. Gold futures (₹1,58,547/10 gm) was up 3.9 per cent and silver futures (₹2,71,886/kg) gained 3.8 per cent. Below is our analysis.

MCX-Gold (₹1,58,547)

Gold futures (June) broke out of the resistance at ₹1,55,000 and marked a two-month high of ₹1,64,497 last Wednesday. But then the price moderated to close the week at ₹1,58,547.

The breakout is unlikely to sustain, given the weakness in gold in the global market. We expect gold futures to see a decline to ₹1,48,500. A breach of this can lead to a fall to ₹1,40,000.

But in case there is a rally, it is likely to be capped at ₹1,63,000.  

Trade strategy: Short gold futures (June) at ₹1,58,550. Place stop-loss at ₹1,65,000. When the price drops to ₹1,53,000, revise the stop-loss to ₹1,55,000. Exit at ₹1,48,500. 

MCX-Silver (₹2,71,886)

Silver futures (July) broke out of the resistance at ₹2,63,000 early last week. It extended the rise to mark a two-month high of ₹3,04,891 on Wednesday before seeing a correction in the subsequent sessions. 

Like in gold futures, the breakout in silver futures, too, might not sustain. From the current level, we expect silver futures to fall to ₹2,50,000 in the near term. Next support is at ₹2,40,000.

Trade strategy: Short silver futures, if it inches up to ₹2,85,000 for a better risk-reward ratio. Initial stop-loss can be ₹3,05,000. Book profits at ₹2,50,000. 

Published on May 16, 2026