Nifty 50 and Sensex held very well above their support and have seen a good bounce last week. Nifty Bank index on the other hand oscillated well within the expected range. Overall, the movement in the market is happening in line with our expectation. That continues to keep intact our bullish view. We expect the Sensex and Nifty to breach their immediate resistance and go higher in the coming weeks. Nifty Bank index can make a bullish breakout of its range and rise.
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought the Indian equities for the second consecutive week. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $788 million. Need to see if the FPIs accelerate their purchase. If that happens, then Sensex and Nifty can get a push to go higher. The FPI action in the coming weeks will need a close watch.
Video Credit: Businessline
Short-term view: The support in the 23,800-23,600 region mentioned last week has held very well as expected. Nifty touched a low of 23,784.95 and has risen back very well from there. However, the resistance at 24,200 is continuing to cap the upside. The bias remains positive. As such we can expect a breakout above 24,200. Such a break can take the Nifty higher to 24,750 or 24,850 in the short term.
The near-term picture will turn negative only on a break below 23,800. If that happens, a fall to 23,650 or even 23,450 can be seen.
Medium-term view: There is no major change in the broader bullish outlook. Nifty is currently moving up within its broad 22,000-26,500 range. A decisive break above 24,850 will take it up to 26,500, the upper end of the range.
Eventually we expect a bullish breakout above 26,500. That will boost the momentum and take the Nifty up to 28,000 and 30,000 in the long term.
Nifty has to decline below 22,000 to prove this bullish view wrong.
Short-term view: The view of seeing a range bound move between 56,500 and 58,800 is working out well. Nifty Bank index oscillated between 57,074 and 58,706 last week. The 200-Day Moving Average (DMA), currently at 57,125 has limited the downside all through last week. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a breakout above 58,800. Such a break can take the Nifty Bank index up to 60,500 or 61,500 in the coming weeks.
A fall below 56,500 is needed to turn the near-term outlook negative. Only then a fall to 56,000 or 55,500 will come into the picture.
Medium-term view: The overall picture remains bullish. The region between 61,000 and 61,500 will be an important resistance to watch. A break above 61,500 will strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 65,000 in the medium term. It will also open the doors for the Nifty Bank index to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
Key supports are at 53,500 and 50,000. Ideally, the index has to decline below 50,000 to turn bearish.
Near-term view: Sensex has risen back well from the low of 76,082.51. Immediate support is at 76,800. Below that 76,000 will continue to act as a strong support. Resistance is at 77,700. We expect the Sensex to breach this hurdle and rise to 78,800-79,000 in a week or two. An extended rise to 80,000 is also a possibility that cannot be ruled out.
Sensex has to decline below 76,000 to turn the short-term picture negative. If that happens, a fall to 75,500 or even 74,000 is possible. But our preference is to see the Sensex sustaining above 76,000.
Medium-term view: The long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Sensex is now moving up within its 71,000-86,000 range. The region between 80,000 and 80,500 is a crucial intermediate resistance. A break above 80,500 will clear the way for the index to move up towards 86,000, the upper end of the range, in the medium term.
From a long-term perspective, Sensex is expected rise past 86,000 and target 90,000 and even 94,000.
The bullish view will go wrong only if the Sensex declines below 71,000.
The crucial resistance level of 23,150 has capped the upside very well. The Nifty Midcap 150 index made a high of 23,138.90 and has come down from there. Immediate support is at 22,700. A fall below it can drag the index down to 22,300 or 22,100. In that case, the 21,700-23,000 range may come back into the picture again.
On the other hand, if the index manages sustain above 22,700 and bounces back, then it will be positive. That will increase the chances of getting a bullish breakout above 23,150. Such a break will boost the momentum. It can trigger a fresh rally to 26,000-26,500 in the medium term. That will also keep the doors open for the Nifty Midcap 150 index to target 28,000-28,500 in the long term.
The short-term outlook will turn negative only if the index declines below 21,700. If that happens, a fall to 21,200-21,000 can be seen.
The region between 21,000 and 20,800 is a crucial support zone. The long-term bullish view will get negated only if the index falls below 20,800. That looks less likely for now.
The price action last week indicates lack of strong follow-through buying in the market. Immediate support is around 17,550. If the index manages to sustain above this support, a rise to 18,200-18,300, the crucial resistance, is possible in the short term. A decisive break above 18,300 will strengthen the bullish case. That in turn can trigger a fresh rally towards 22,500-23,000 in the medium term and 24,000-25,000 in the long term. A fall below 14,000 is needed to negate this long-term bullish view.
On the other hand, a fall below 17,550 from current levels can bring the index under pressure. In that case a fall to 17,200 or even 16,700-16,600 is possible in the short term.
Published on June 27, 2026
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