Crude oil futures traded marginally higher on Thursday morning due to uncertainty over efforts to end the war between the US and Iran.

At 9.59 am on Thursday, July Brent oil futures were at $105.89, up by 0.39 per cent, and July crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $99.19, up by 0.19 per cent. June crude oil futures were trading at ₹9,551 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹9,463, up by 0.93 per cent, and July futures were trading at ₹9,214 against the previous close of ₹9,128, up by 0.94 per cent.

US President Donald Trump reiterated on Wednesday that the US would attack Iran if Iran fails to enter into a peace deal. However, he said, the US could wait for ‘a few days’ to get the ‘right answers’ from Iran.

Meanwhile, a statement by the Revolutionary Guards of Iran said: “If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time.”

In their Commodities Feed for Thursday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said the oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the US and Iran are progressing.

“We’ve been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment. Yet the market is still reactive, likely reflecting the significance of ongoing supply disruptions. The latest report suggests that the US is in the ‘final stages’ with Iran, raising hopes for an end to the war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, ICE Brent settled more than 5.6 per cent lower on Wednesday,” they said.

Meanwhile, there appear to be additional crude oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. They said the ship tracking data showed at least two VLCCs navigated the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, and possibly a third. This would equate to 6 million barrels.

“More recently, we’ve seen more oil making its way out of the Persian Gulf, but clearly, flows remain well below normal levels. Our base case sees Brent averaging $104 a barrel this quarter. Then, we see oil trading into the $90s in the second half of the year, assuming that Strait of Hormuz oil flows amount to around 4 million barrels a day by the end of May. We will need to see this trend of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz continue for our base case to hold. We may see more oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. But shipowners will be reluctant to return until the current hostilities in the region are resolved,” they said.

The weekly petroleum status report by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) said that the US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels for the week ending May 15. At 445 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 2 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels from last week and were 5 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and were about 9 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total products supplied in the US over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per day, up by 3.1 per cent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 per cent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 1.4 per cent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1 per cent compared with the same four-week period last year.

May lead futures were trading at ₹203.50 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹202.20, up by 0.64 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), June turmeric (farmer polished) contracts were trading at ₹16,120 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹16,012, up by 0.67 per cent.

June jeera futures were trading at ₹19,750 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹19,650, up by 0.51 per cent.

Published on May 21, 2026