China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea focused not on dramatic attacks but on covert accumulation of access—targeting identity systems, cloud environments, and edge infrastructure where oversight is weakest. The primary risk is no longer a single large-scale incident. It's sustained pre-positioning that enables persistent espionage and creates latent capacity for disruption.
Key Insight: Warning timelines are compressing. The adversaries are already inside.
Every major conflict in 2025 had a digital front—and the combatants weren't always who they claimed to be. Genuine intrusions, exaggerated claims, and disinformation reinforced one another across Israel-Iran, India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, and Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
Key Insight: Perception is now contested terrain. Even low-sophistication attacks generate outsized impact when amplified through coordinated information operations.
Law enforcement achieved significant wins in 2025. But the criminal ecosystem adapted. Sustained pressure fractured large enterprises into smaller, decentralized operations. Groups adopted subscription models, outsourced operations, and relied on specialized services—creating a distributed criminal supply chain that's resilient and difficult to track.
Key Insight: Threat actors are adapting faster than defenses. Modular ecosystems mean even disrupted operations reconstitute rapidly.
2025 was not a breakout year for AI-driven cyber operations. But the immediate risk isn't autonomous attacks—it's verification failure at scale, where deception becomes faster, cheaper, and more convincing. As AI becomes empowered to take real-world actions through autonomous agents, the attack surface for fraud and manipulation will expand dramatically.
Key Insight: Organizations that act now to establish AI governance and prepare for post-quantum migration will hold significant advantages.
The 2026 State of Security report provides comprehensive analysis of each threat domain, threat actor profiles, regional risk assessments, and actionable recommendations for building organizational resilience.
Intelligence doesn't eliminate uncertainty—it makes uncertainty manageable. Get the insights you need to reduce surprise, prioritize effectively, and act with confidence.
The 2026 State of Security report was produced by Recorded Future's Insikt Group, comprising analysts and security researchers with deep government, law enforcement, military, and intelligence agency experience.
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