Where you are born seems to be increasingly determining whether you can study in the United States. A new report has found that US visa rejection rates for students from the Global South, including India, are significantly higher than those from Europe or North America, and the gap has been widening for a decade.

The findings come from Shorelight's report titled 'Beyond the Interview: A Decade of Student Visa Denials and What Comes Next', based on data obtained through a public information request to the US Department of State and developed in partnership with the Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration.

The report concludes that visa denials have not only increased over time but have become "structurally concentrated in specific regions," raising uncomfortable questions about whether access to American education is being shaped less by merit and more by geography.

A decade of rising refusals

The trajectory is steady rather than sudden. F-1 visa refusal rates overall have climbed from around 23% in 2015 to nearly 35% in 2025. Last year alone recorded a 50% increase in refusals compared to 2015 levels, one of the steepest single-year shifts in recent memory.

The regional disparity within that broader increase is where the data becomes most pointed. Asian applicants faced refusal rates of around 41%, nearly double those from North America, South America and Oceania. European applicants continued to record the lowest refusal rates at roughly 9%, a figure that has remained relatively stable across the decade.

Africa tells an even sharper story. Refusal rates that stood at around 43% in 2015 have climbed to nearly 64% in recent years, a rise that suggests the tightening is neither random nor evenly distributed.

India: Among the hardest hit

For Indian students, who form the largest segment of international students in the US, the numbers are particularly stark. Visa rejection rates rose from 53% to 61% in a single year, placing India among the most affected nations in an already difficult environment.

The broader South Asian picture reinforces the pattern. Students from Nepal saw rejection rates rise from 59% to 81% within a year. Bangladesh and Pakistan recorded refusal rates of 73% and 71% respectively, figures that point to a regional trend rather than isolated cases.

The pipeline at risk

Indian students make up nearly 30% of all international enrolments in the US and form a substantial share of graduate-level STEM programmes. They account for close to 75% of H-1B visa recipients in the technology sector and nearly half of STEM-OPT participants, according to Y-axis. Data from the IIE Open Doors report indicates that Indian students make up over 70% of enrolments in some advanced STEM programmes.

The numbers are already reflecting the strain. Indian student enrolment in US graduate programmes fell by 9.5% in 2024/25, according to the Institute of International Education. Parliamentary data indicates that the number of Indian students going to the US has dropped by around 28% in the past year. The number of Indian students in the US fell from 378,787 in February 2025 to 352,644 in February 2026. Overall enrolment trends show a decline of nearly 45% in certain segments.

When that pipeline shrinks, the consequences are not one-sided. American universities stand to lose between $3 billion and $8.6 billion in revenue, while research output thins and lab capacity weakens.

Published on: Apr 17, 2026 10:23 AM IST