Summary

• The latest UK jobs report, which features rising unemployment, sharply lower payrolls and tumbling wage growth, is a reminder that the economy is much less susceptible to 'second round' effects from the incoming energy shock.
• We're still forecasting a rate hike in June, but that is far from guaranteed.
• We remain open-minded about next month’s meeting. A lot will also depend on tomorrow’s inflation data.

By James Smith, Developed Markets Economist, UK

Ouch! Taken at face value, the latest UK jobs report is bad pretty much wherever you look.

Admittedly, some of it looks more like noise than signal. Take the 100,000

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