Summary

• Markets have two convictions: the ECB will hold in April and it will hike in June.
• We don’t expect either of them to be challenged at next week’s meeting.
• The rates market may also have little reason to revise expectations for two hikes in 2026.
• It’s a supporting argument for the euro, but not enough to edge out global equities and oil as the main drivers.

By Francesco Pesole | Michiel Tukker | Carsten Brzeski

The European Central Bank will likely keep rates on hold at the 30 April meeting. That’s been hinted at by several Governing Council members lately, who have stressed

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