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'Team Transitory' Holds For Now In The States
2026-04-16 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • US inflation is rising, but without the scale of the 2021-22 supply shock or the demand impetus that drove persistent inflation then.
  • If tensions ease and oil prices fall in the second half of 2026, rate cuts remain more likely than hikes.
  • The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximising employment is a key distinguishing feature of the US.
crash in the market at wall street

franckreporter/iStock via Getty Images

By James Knightley, Chief International Economist, US

Inflation expectations remain tolerable

The Federal Reserve can’t do anything to ease the energy supply shock. Instead, its role is to ensure that inflation expectations remain contained, and, for now, that seems to

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