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China’s nuclear thinking has shifted
J.D. Capelou · 2026-05-08 · via Semafor

The swift buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal bucks conventional wisdom on the limits of Beijing’s ambitions.

Mao Zedong called for building a small nuclear force, but Beijing’s approach to the weapons is not “as philosophically unique as once thought,” China nuclear expert Tong Zhao wrote in China Books Review, citing three recent works that illustrate the country’s nuclear evolution.

Beijing’s warheads are projected to grow to more than 1,000 by 2030, but many top Chinese officials and experts are in the dark about the government’s nuclear strategy, Zhao noted.

The buildup was largely driven by a belief that perceived Chinese weakness was inviting US assertiveness — with the broader aim of undermining “US confidence in its overall dominance.”

Chart showing estimated nuclear weapons stockpiles for 2025