Schools in London continue to be hardest hit by housing costs and the falling birthrate. Further closures and mergers of primary schools are expected after a sharp fall in the number of children entering reception classes in the capital.

London’s boroughs will have nearly 3,000 fewer infants aged four enrolling at the start of the next school year in September, according to school place offers announced by local authorities across England.

While some rural councils including Shropshire and Cornwall also recorded falling enrolments, London had a decline of 3.5% compared with last year, which council leaders partly attributed to the capital’s higher costs.

Jon Abbey, the chair of the pan-London admissions board that allocates school places, said: “Falling birthrates and the ongoing cost-of-living pressures facing London families, including high housing costs, have again contributed to a decrease in overall applications this year, a trend we expect to continue in the years ahead.”

About 88% of families received their first choice of school in London, but with considerable variation between boroughs. In the Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea boroughs, only about 75% received their first preference. In Hillingdon, Tower Hamlets and Enfield the success rate was closer to 95%.

The London councils are forecasting a further 2.5% fall in reception pupil numbers over the next four years, equivalent to 87 fewer primary school classes, with inner London expected to be the worst affected. The councils are also expecting a sustained fall in demand for secondary school places over the same period.

Antonia Jennings, chief executive of the Centre for London thinktank, said the councils were having to deal with turbulent population changes and increased funding pressures while keeping schools open.

“Falling enrolment means less funding for schools. Ninety schools have closed or merged in the past five years. London faces a £45m reduction in school funding over the next four years, and a quarter of schools are already in budget deficit. This means cuts to staff, specialist support and the curriculum,” Jennings said.

“At the same time, the needs of London children are becoming more complex. More pupils are growing up in poverty, with limited access to food, living in overcrowded homes or temporary accommodation.

“This places increasing pressure on schools, as education is interrupted and teachers plug the gaps left by stretched public services. Unless we give schools and local councils the resources to support families, London’s children will pay the price.”

National primary school offer day is when families across England and Wales are notified where children starting school in September will be placed, from a choice of between three and six schools named by parents or carers.

Shropshire council said it had received 2,582 applications for places, a 3% fall compared with last year. But the reduction meant that almost all families applying received their first choice.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said: “While most parents will be happy to have found out that they have got their first choice, that doesn’t take away from the difficulty and disappointment experienced by those families who have missed out. And there is a concern this year that overall offer figures may mask quite big regional variations.”

In Kent, applications were fractionally higher this year, with 89% receiving their first choice. Cornwall’s 4,757 applications were 1% down from 2025, with almost 96% getting their first choice. In North Yorkshire, where more than 30 rural primary schools have closed since 2018, there was some good news with an upturn in applications.