No fire sale for firewalls as memory shortages could push prices higher
In SEC filings, Fortinet and Palo Alto show shrinking product margins taking hold.
PCs and datacenters aren't the only devices that need DRAM. The global memory shortage is roiling the cybersecurity market, with the cost of firewalls expected to balloon and hit both customers and vendors in the pocketbook in 2026, according to research analysts Wedbush.
The companies likely to face the biggest challenges when it comes to mitigating the cost of memory used by their best-selling products are Fortinet, Check Point, and Palo Alto Networks, according to Wedbush CEO Dan Ives, who recently conducted a channel-check conversation with Jim Gruzlewski, strategic channel and cybersecurity advisor at consultancy SecureX.
“With these DRAM impacts, many organizations looking to build next-generation firewall systems are bound to see higher bill of materials costs moving forward which may weigh on margins heading into 2026,” Wedbush wrote in a note following the conversation.
When reached by The Register, Check Point said it had nothing to add, while Fortinet and Palo Alto did not respond to requests for comment. Palo Alto and Fortinet are the global leaders by market share and revenue in security hardware appliances, according to IDC. Check Point is fourth behind Cisco.
Wedbush analysts speculated that Palo Alto Networks – which they said has a larger DRAM inventory – might be best positioned to absorb the impact of higher memory costs.
“We note that despite Palo Alto expecting to sell more cyber hardware units this upcoming year, it may see a diminished impact moving forward as the company front-loaded its inventory purchases which may lessen the blow from DRAM price increases moving forward,” Wedbush wrote.
During its most recent earnings call in November, Fortinet said its gross margins – which looks at the revenue generated from sales versus cost of a company’s products – were 81.6 percent, but that’s down from 83.2 percent, which it achieved in the same quarter a year ago.
Fortinet issued guidance to expect even lower gross margins next quarter of 79 to 80 percent.
Palo Alto Networks said that the gross margin across its products was 76.9 percent during its most recent quarter reported in November. That’s lower than the same quarter a year ago when its gross margin came in at 78 percent. It does not issue guidance on gross margins.
Wedbush said Check Point had already raised prices to offset the cost.
“We also note that the DRAM pricing issue impacted (Check Point’s) quantum business, but this was largely offset by a 5% price increase across this business, which softened the blow to the overall business,” Wedbush wrote. “While this was a major concern over the past month or so, DRAM is expected to have a larger impact moving into 2026 rather than in 4Q as more next-gen firewall buildouts continue.”
Reports last week out of the Korea Economic Daily stated two of the country’s producers of DRAM are planning to raise prices by up to 70 percent this quarter. When combined with the 50 percent increase during 2025, the price of memory could double in cost year-over-year by mid-2026.
Taiwan-based market watcher TrendForce reports that conventional DRAM prices already jumped 55 to 60 percent in a single quarter. ®