What is the business community meant to make of the latest Israel-Lebanon framework deal? Do we just write it off as Iran wants, or do we prepare to do business with Lebanon?

The Lebanese economy is service-oriented, but it isn’t in good shape.

The World Bank Group, European Union, and United Nations launched a Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework plan (3RF) in 2020. A reform-minded government was established in 2025.

A trilateral framework between the United States, the State of Israel, and the Republic of Lebanon was signed by the parties in English and released by the US State Department on June 26, 2026.

This framework is an affirmation rather than an agreement, but at least it was signed. Below is an overview.

In the framework, Israel and Lebanon affirm each other’s right to exist in peace and to formally conclude any state of war between them (section 1).

Pursuant to an unpublished Security Annex, and as part of the broader effort toward the Lebanese state’s monopoly of arms and sovereign territorial control, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will gradually assume full and effective security responsibility in two pilot zones; future pilot zones will also be agreed upon by mutual consent (section 2).

The Israeli government stresses that its military actions in Lebanon are solely a consequence of the attacks, threat, and hostile intent of non-state armed groups, particularly Hezbollah, and that it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon (section 5).

The government of Lebanon, in accordance with the Charter of the UN, holds the exclusive sovereign authority to make war and peace (section 6).

The security of Israel’s northern communities is essential to long-term stability and peace (section 8). There will be a military coordination group with US support, as well as participation and disarmament of all non-state armed groups (sections 7 and 8).

Separately, and simultaneously, the US will rally international partners to actively support Lebanon’s government in rebuilding the country, repairing infrastructure, restoring the economy, and creating opportunities for prosperity. 

This is expected to include mobilizing substantial reconstruction and humanitarian assistance for Lebanon, economic recovery programs, and investment initiatives so that Lebanon can recover from years of conflict and provide a better future for all its citizens (Framework Section 10).

The framework sets out a series of planned implementation steps (sections 11-14).

First, to prevent funds from flowing to any entity, organization, or individual with non-state armed groups, including reconstruction funds.

Second, to establish working groups to draft a full, comprehensive peace and security agreement. Third, to take good faith measures.

Fourth, cessation of all hostile or adverse actions in international political or legal fora. Fifth, to search for and return of remains (presumably of Israeli pilot Ron Arad) and release of detainees.

The US coordinated an agreement, which was deposited with the UN on October 27, 2022, saying that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to establish a Maritime Boundary Line. According to the MBL agreement, a hydrocarbon prospect of unknown commercial viability was thought to straddle two areas known as Block 72 of Israel (near the Karish gas field) and Block 9 of Lebanon (known as the Qana prospect).

Exploration and exploitation of the prospect were to be carried out in accordance with good petroleum industry practices.

The parties agreed that a reputable international operator would explore and exploit Block 9. Israel would be remunerated by the Block 9 operator for its rights to any potential deposits in the prospect.

Unfortunately, this didn’t work out. Elai Rettig, an assistant professor in energy politics at Bar-Ilan University, noted in The Jerusalem Post of April 20, 2026: “There’s no gas in the Qana prospect. 

In 2023, TotalEnergies announced it did not find commercial gas reserves in that field and abandoned Block 9 entirely. “The more interesting issue is Block 8, which is beyond this map, which TOTAL wants to explore,” said the company.

Hezbollah elements have called this a capitulation. But it seems a majority of Lebanese people want to give peace a chance, as the Irish did in 1998. 

All in all, it seems the trilateral framework is a tristate building permit that lays the foundations for the next Trump Tower.

This won’t be another New York skyscraper, but it could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize, which would be a towering achievement for President Donald Trump, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and former White House senior adviser Jared Kushner. And Mediterranean gas would be another prize, if any is found in Block 8. It remains to be seen whether entrepreneurs now step in and begin developing activity in the area.

As always, consult experienced professional advisors in each country concerned at an early stage in specific cases.

leon@hcat.co

The writer is a certified public accountant and tax specialist at Harris Consulting & Tax.