Every pre-kickoff AI forecast for FIFA World Cup 2026 published by GoalPulse, locked in immutable snapshots with sha256 receipts before kickoff and scored against official results. Misses included — nothing hidden.
Live source (updates hourly through the final): https://goalpulse.io/open-data Human-readable track record & calibration: https://goalpulse.io/ai-track-record
What's here
prediction-ledger.json— every scored forecast: W/D/L probabilities, actual result, per-row multiclass Brier, calibration buckets, and baselines (model vs de-vig market closing consensus vs uniform 1/3).prediction-ledger.csv— same rows, flat.knockout-simulation.json— exact bracket-DP championship probabilities from the current shadow model.
Honesty notes
- Forecasts are from an editorial shadow model (calibrated Elo). On the joined rows the market closing consensus still beats the model (Brier ≈0.446 vs ≈0.499) — we publish the comparison anyway; that's the point.
- Draws in knockout propagation are split proportionally to 90-minute win probabilities (shootout proxy).
- Not betting odds. Not betting advice.
License
Free to use with attribution: cite GoalPulse (goalpulse.io) and link to https://goalpulse.io/open-data.
Snapshot in this repo: 2026-07-08. For the freshest data, always pull the live endpoints above.