LEONARDO CUARESMA remembers when a day at Scarborough Shoal almost guaranteed a full catch. Nearly a decade after the Philippines won an international arbitration case against China, the 60-year-old fisherman says that promise remains out of reach as Chinese vessels continue to keep Filipino boats away from one of their richest traditional fishing grounds.

“The arbitral ruling was significant,” Mr. Cuaresma, who heads a fishermen’s association in Zambales province, said by phone in Filipino. “However, even though we won the case, it did not help our livelihoods.”

Defense economist Rocio Salle Gatdula said the arbitration victory remains legally significant but has produced little practical benefit for fishermen.

“However politically impactful the arbitration was, the ruling has not improved access for Filipino fishermen to traditional grounds like Scarborough Shoal, with Chinese forces continuing to harass and restrict entry despite the legal invalidation of China’s claims,” she said via Facebook Messenger.

The Philippines brought China before a United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal in 2013, challenging Beijing’s sweeping “nine-dash line” claim over most of the South China Sea.

On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China’s expansive maritime claims had no legal basis under international law and that Beijing had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone.

The ruling also found that China unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from accessing Scarborough Shoal, a traditional fishing ground shared by the Philippines, China and Vietnam. Beijing has consistently rejected the decision.

Known locally as Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal, Scarborough lies about 220 kilometers west of Zambales. The coral atoll has long sustained fishing communities in western Luzon with its abundant marine resources.

“Bajo de Masinloc is very important for us because in times of need, we know that there is a place where we can catch fish,” Mr. Cuaresma said. He described the shoal as so rich in fish that they appeared “like grains of unhusked rice scattered across the water.”

That abundance has become increasingly difficult to reach.

China has maintained effective control over the shoal since a 2012 standoff with Philippine government vessels. Chinese coast guard, navy and maritime militia ships have since maintained a near-continuous presence around the atoll, regularly driving away Filipino fishermen.

“They always tell us not to approach Bajo de Masinloc and drive us away,” Mr. Cuaresma said.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent via Viber.

China has strengthened its presence around Scarborough despite the arbitral ruling. Chinese coast guard vessels accumulated 933 ship-days around the shoal during the first seven months of 2026, nearly matching the 1,099 ship-days recorded for all of 2025, according to a July report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).

AMTI said several coast guard vessels coordinated patrols around a perimeter roughly 30 nautical miles from the shoal, while six to eight Chinese maritime militia vessels maintained a persistent presence closer to the lagoon.

Philippine maritime agencies have also stepped up patrols. AMTI estimated Philippine vessels averaged 43 ship-days a month near Scarborough in the first half, a 43% increase from the previous year.

‘CLOSE EYE’
The increased patrols have also resulted in more confrontations. AMTI tracked 112 days of interaction between Philippine and Chinese vessels near the shoal in the first six months, averaging 19 days each month.

The think tank also noted that China has adopted additional measures to reinforce its presence. Last year, Beijing established a 3,500-hectare marine reserve around part of the shoal, and floating buoys have since appeared near the feature, prompting Manila to file diplomatic protests.

“As Beijing pushes the boundaries of just how much control it can assert over the shoal, Manila and Washington would do well to keep a close eye on Scarborough,” AMTI said.

Ms. Gatdula said the Philippines should continue expanding joint patrols with allies such as the US and Japan while sustaining transparency efforts documenting Chinese activities in contested waters.

She also urged the government to accelerate the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ modernization program by acquiring more offshore patrol vessels, frigates, anti-submarine capabilities and maritime surveillance radars, while investing in domestic shipbuilding to strengthen long-term maritime presence.

Matteo Piasentini, a senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines and analyst for China and Indo-Pacific region at Italian think tank Geopolitica, said Manila should complement military modernization with investments in maritime infrastructure that strengthen coastal communities and economic activity.

“There are many measures that could be adopted, such as developing maritime infrastructure in the area,” he said. Such projects would improve the country’s maritime capacity without necessarily requiring large-scale development of disputed features.

Mr. Piasentini added that China tends to intensify maritime coercion when the geopolitical costs remain low, making credible deterrence essential.

He said relatively inexpensive assets such as drones, small patrol vessels and subsea monitoring systems could significantly boost Philippine maritime capabilities.

For Mr. Cuaresma, the Philippines should not stop asserting its rights even if Beijing continues to ignore the tribunal’s ruling.

“It’s important to file another case so our neighboring countries and allies will take notice,” he said. “It will show that we are not simply giving it away.”

For fishermen who once relied on Scarborough Shoal for their livelihoods, the 2016 arbitration victory remains more a legal milestone than a practical one.

Nearly a decade later, access to one of the country’s richest fishing grounds is still measured not by international law, but by the ships waiting at its entrance. — KCLB