(Bloomberg) — Russia posted its first monthly budget surplus of the year in June as revenue jumped, buoyed in part by a surge in oil and gas receipts that’s likely to prove short-lived.

The surplus amounted to 279 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published Thursday. Oil and gas revenue jumped 38% from a year earlier, while non-oil revenue rose by about a third, the calculations showed.

However, higher commodities prices triggered by the war in the Middle East appear set to provide only temporary relief to Moscow’s war-strained finances. After Iran and the US signed a draft peace agreement in June, the price of Russian crude used for tax calculations fell to $63.52 a barrel from $86.52 a month earlier and $94.87 in April, according to the Economy Ministry in Moscow. That suggests budget revenue will be weaker in July.

Early this month, Russia’s flagship Urals crude slipped back to levels seen before the war in the Middle East, adding to pressure on the Kremlin’s coffers in the coming months. The grade averaged $41.66 a barrel at Russia’s western ports, less than half the level reached at the height of the oil-market turmoil in April, according to Argus Media data.

At the same time, Russia’s plan to curb military spending for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine is already slipping out of reach after budget outlays surged in the first half of the year.

Expenditure rose 11% in June after a 28% increase in May, according to Bloomberg calculations. The government spent 24.4 trillion rubles, or 55% of the full-year allocation, in the first six months of 2026, according to Finance Ministry data. The pace leaves little room for the spending slowdown outlined in the budget law, especially as government expenditure typically accelerates toward year-end.

State orders jumped 47% in the first half from a year earlier, with nearly three-quarters of the full-year procurement allocation already spent.

Although the cumulative shortfall narrowed slightly from May, it still stood at 5.7 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of gross domestic product, at the end of June — well above the government’s full-year target of 1.6% of GDP.

The faster pace of spending comes as Russia’s war with Ukraine escalates. Kyiv is attacking deeper into Russian territory, with near-daily drone- and, more recently, missile-strikes targeting energy, industrial and export infrastructure. Moscow has stepped up its missile attacks across Ukraine, including on Kyiv.

Russia’s 2026 budget called for defense outlays to fall by about 11% while total expenditure was set to rise just 4%, below the expected inflation rate.

The failure to slow spending also undermines the Finance Ministry’s broader goal of bringing the budget to a structural balance, where the deficit wouldn’t exceed debt-servicing costs. The plan was intended to reduce inflationary pressure from public finances and create room for faster monetary easing.

The Bank of Russia warned last month that policymakers may pause an easing cycle that’s lasted a year, citing fiscal policy and an increase in inflation risks.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has acknowledged that achieving structural balance has been postponed by several years and that this year’s budget gap will be wider than previously expected. 

Last month, lawmakers in the State Duma rushed through amendments allowing the government to increase spending without the approvals previously required under the budget law.