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cs.IT updates on arXiv.org

Theoretical Limits of Language Model Alignment $f$-Divergence Regularized RLHF: Two Tales of Sampling and Unified Analyses A Unified Measure-Theoretic View of Diffusion, Score-Based, and Flow Matching Generative Models When Can Voting Help, Hurt, or Change Course? Exact Structure of Binary Test-Time Aggregation When Semantic Communication Meets Queueing: Cross-Layer Latency and Task Fidelity Optimization Convexity in Disguise: A Theoretical Framework for Nonconvex Low-Rank Matrix Estimation Conditional Diffusion Under Linear Constraints: Langevin Mixing and Information-Theoretic Guarantees Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Expert Routing for Communication-Efficient MoE via Finite Expert Banks Contextual Memory-Enhanced Source Coding for Low-SNR Communications Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Leveraging Code Automorphisms for Improved Syndrome-Based Neural Decoding A Hierarchical Sampling Framework for bounding the Generalization Error of Federated Learning Dueling DDQN-Based Adaptive Multi-Objective Handover Optimization for LEO Satellite Networks The Causal Description Gap: Information-Theoretic Separations Across Pearl's Hierarchy Optimization of CV-QKD Under Practical Constraints Benchmarking Wireless Representations: High-Dimensional vs. Compressed Embeddings for Efficiency and Robustness Real-Time Text Transmission via LLM-Based Entropy Coding over Fixed-Rate Channels SwiftChannel: Algorithm-Hardware Co-Design for Deep Learning-Based 5G Channel Estimation Evolving Token Communication with Parametric Memory Network Remote Action Generation: Remote Control with Minimal Communication The (Marginal) Value of a Search Ad: An Online Causal Framework for Repeated Second-price Auctions Stabilizing Private LASSO under Heterogeneous Covariates via Anisotropic Objective Perturbation Linear-Readout Floors and Threshold Recovery in Computation in Superposition Soft Graph Diffusion Transformer for MIMO Detection Hierarchical Federated Learning for Networked AI: From Communication Saving to Architecture-Aware Design Exponential families from a single KL identity MIFair: A Mutual-Information Framework for Intersectionality and Multiclass Fairness Diffusion-OAMP for Joint Image Compression and Wireless Transmission Decoupled Descent: Exact Test Error Tracking Via Approximate Message Passing
PoPStat-COVID19: Leveraging Population Pyramids to Quanti...
Buddhi Wijenayake, Athulya Ratnayake, Lelumi Edirisinghe, Uditha · 2025-09-18 · via cs.IT updates on arXiv.org

Understanding how population age structure shapes COVID-19 burden is crucial for pandemic preparedness, yet common summary measures such as median age ignore key distributional features like skewness, bimodality, and the proportional weight of high-risk cohorts. We extend the PoPStat framework, originally devised to link entire population pyramids with cause-specific mortality by applying it to COVID-19. Using 2019 United Nations World Population Prospects age-sex distributions together with cumulative cases and deaths per million recorded up to 5 May 2023 by Our World in Data, we calculate PoPDivergence (the Kullback-Leibler divergence from an optimised reference pyramid) for 180+ countries and derive PoPStat-COVID19 as the Pearson correlation between that divergence and log-transformed incidence or mortality. Optimisation selects Malta's old-skewed pyramid as the reference, yielding strong negative correlations for cases (r=-0.86, p<0.001, R^2=0.74) and deaths (r=-0.82, p<0.001, R^2=0.67). Sensitivity tests across twenty additional, similarly old-skewed references confirm that these associations are robust to reference choice. Benchmarking against eight standard indicators like gross domestic product per capita, Gini index, Human Development Index, life expectancy at birth, median age, population density, Socio-demographic Index, and Universal Health Coverage Index shows that PoPStat-COVID19 surpasses GDP per capita, median age, population density, and several other traditional measures, and outperforms every comparator for fatality burden. PoPStat-COVID19 therefore provides a concise, distribution-aware scalar for quantifying demographic vulnerability to COVID-19.