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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
An Elementary Derivation of the Large Deviation Rate Func...
Mathukumalli Vidyasagar · 2013-09-14 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Large deviation theory is a branch of probability theory that is devoted to a study of the "rate" at which empirical estimates of various quantities converge to their true values. The object of study in this paper is the rate at which estimates of the doublet frequencies of a Markov chain over a finite alphabet converge to their true values. In case the Markov process is actually an i.i.d.\ process, the rate function turns out to be the relative entropy (or Kullback-Leibler divergence) between the true and the estimated probability vectors. This result is a special case of a very general result known as Sanov's theorem and dates back to 1957. Moreover, since the introduction of the "method of types" by Csiszár and his co-workers during the 1980s, the proof of this version of Sanov's theorem has been "elementary," using some combinatorial arguments. However, when the i.i.d.\ process is replaced by a Markov process, the available proofs are far more complex. The main objective of this paper is therefore to present a first-principles derivation of the LDP for finite state Markov chains, using only simple combinatorial arguments (e.g.\ the method of types), thus gathering in one place various arguments and estimates that are scattered over the literature.