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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Concentration via metastable mixing, with applications to...
Vilas Winstein · 2025-03-11 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Folklore belief holds that metastable wells in low-temperature statistical mechanics models exhibit high-temperature behavior. We make this rigorous in the exponential random graph model (ERGM) through the lens of concentration of measure. We make use of the supercritical (low-temperature) metastable mixing which was recently proven by Bresler, Nagaraj, and Nichani, and obtain a novel concentration inequality for Lipschitz observables of the ERGM in a large metastable well, answering a question posed by those authors. To achieve this, we prove a new connectivity property for metastable mixing in the ERGM and introduce a new general result yielding concentration inequalities, which extends a result of Chatterjee. We also use a result of Barbour, Brightwell, and Luczak to cover all cases of interest. Our work extends a result of Ganguly and Nam from the subcritical (high-temperature) regime to metastable wells, and we also extend applications of this concentration, namely a central limit theorem for small subcollections of edges and a bound on the Wasserstein distance between the ERGM and the Erdős-Rényi random graph. Finally, to supplement the mathematical content of the article, we present a simulation study of metastable wells in the supercritical ERGM.