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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A General Framework for Survival Analysis and Multi-State...
Stefan Groha, Sebastian M Schmon, Alexander Gusev · 2020-06-09 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe hazard rates for the occurrence of single fatal events, but are unable to accurately model competing events and transitions. Common phenomena are often better described through multiple states, for example: the progress of a disease modeled as healthy, sick and dead instead of healthy and dead, where the competing nature of death and disease has to be taken into account. Moreover, Cox models are limited by modeling assumptions, like proportionality of hazard rates and linear effects. Individual characteristics can vary significantly between observational units, like patients, resulting in idiosyncratic hazard rates and different disease trajectories. These considerations require flexible modeling assumptions. To overcome these issues, we propose the use of neural ordinary differential equations as a flexible and general method for estimating multi-state survival models by directly solving the Kolmogorov forward equations. To quantify the uncertainty in the resulting individual cause-specific hazard rates, we further introduce a variational latent variable model and show that this enables meaningful clustering with respect to multi-state outcomes as well as interpretability regarding covariate values. We show that our model exhibits state-of-the-art performance on popular survival data sets and demonstrate its efficacy in a multi-state setting