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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Adaptive Sequential Design for a Single Time-Series
Ivana Malenica, Aurelien Bibaut, Mark J. van der Laan · 2021-01-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn an optimal, unknown choice of the controlled components of the design in order to optimize the expected outcome; with that, we adapt the randomization mechanism for future time-point experiments based on the data collected on the individual over time. Our results demonstrate that one can learn the optimal rule based on a single sample, and thereby adjust the design at any point t with valid inference for the mean target parameter. This work provides several contributions to the field of statistical precision medicine. First, we define a general class of averages of conditional causal parameters defined by the current context for the single unit time-series data. We define a nonparametric model for the probability distribution of the time-series under few assumptions, and aim to fully utilize the sequential randomization in the estimation procedure via the double robust structure of the efficient influence curve of the proposed target parameter. We present multiple exploration-exploitation strategies for assigning treatment, and methods for estimating the optimal rule. Lastly, we present the study of the data-adaptive inference on the mean under the optimal treatment rule, where the target parameter adapts over time in response to the observed context of the individual. Our target parameter is pathwise differentiable with an efficient influence function that is doubly robust - which makes it easier to estimate than previously proposed variations. We characterize the limit distribution of our estimator under a Donsker condition expressed in terms of a notion of bracketing entropy adapted to martingale settings.