惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

博客园 - 聂微东
Y
Y Combinator Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
L
LangChain Blog
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
A
About on SuperTechFans
小众软件
小众软件
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
GbyAI
GbyAI
I
InfoQ
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
罗磊的独立博客
C
Check Point Blog
V
V2EX
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
月光博客
月光博客
量子位
雷峰网
雷峰网
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian score calibration for approximate models
Joshua J Bon, David J Warne, David J Nott, Christopher Drovandi · 2022-11-10 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with a surrogate, but this can result in a posterior with poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and improve posterior coverage properties. We do this by optimizing a transformation of the approximate posterior, the result of which maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We develop supporting theory for our method and demonstrate beneficial corrections to approximate posteriors across several examples of increasing complexity.