AI coding assistants are rapidly becoming integral to modern software development. A key challenge in this space is the continual need to migrate and modernize codebases in response to evolving software ecosystems. Traditionally, such migrations have relied on rule-based systems and human intervention. With the advent of powerful large language models (LLMs), AI-driven agentic frameworks offer a promising alternative-but their effectiveness has not been systematically evaluated. In this paper, we introduce FreshBrew, a novel benchmark for evaluating AI agents on project-level Java migrations, with a specific focus on measuring an agent's ability to preserve program semantics and avoid reward hacking, which we argue requires projects with high test coverage for a rigorous and reliable evaluation. We benchmark several state-of-the-art LLMs, and compare their performance against established rule-based tools. Our evaluation of AI agents on this benchmark of 228 repositories shows that the top-performing model, Gemini 2.5 Flash, can successfully migrate 52.3 percent of projects to JDK 17. Our empirical analysis reveals novel insights into the critical strengths and limitations of current agentic approaches, offering actionable insights into their real-world applicability. Our empirical study reveals failure modes of current AI agents in realistic Java modernization tasks, providing a foundation for evaluating trustworthy code-migration systems. By releasing FreshBrew, we aim to facilitate rigorous, reproducible evaluation and catalyze progress in AI-driven codebase modernization.