The NBA’s parity era has produced a different champion for the past seven seasons and we’re seeing the depth of talent across the league displayed nightly during the first round of these NBA playoffs.
This year was the first time we had five first-round series tied 1-1 since the league adopted its current format in 1984, according to the NBA.
Most of the series so far have been impressively competitive on the floor compared to the expectations on paper and the Celtics vs. 76ers series is a great example.
The Celtics opened as -900 favorites to win the series at BetMGM, were -1200 before Game 1 and the most-bet team to sweep their opponent, then moved to -2500 after a blowout win in the opener.
Entering Game 4, up 2-1 in the series, the Celtics are 7.5-point favorites on the road after a 108-100 win punctuated by Jayson Tatum’s dagger 3-pointer in the final minute.
The Sixers, however, have reasons to be optimistic. They don’t see themselves as a team that is lucky to be in the mix and certainly didn’t look complacent after getting a win in Game 2. They have continued to press their advantages with two backcourt studs who could challenge a cheetah in a footrace.
Tyrese Maxey can get anywhere on the floor against the Celtics defense; when he gets into the paint off pick-and-roll, he’s fast enough to beat centers off the dribble, and if they sag off to prevent his drives, he can pull up and hit 3s.
Maxey has taken more pull-up jumpers in the playoffs than anyone by a significant margin: Maxey is averaging 15.7 attempts on pull-ups and the next closest players, Cade Cunningham and Jamal Murray, are at 10.3 attempts. The efficiency hasn’t been great for him (38.3 percent from the floor, 37 percent from deep), but his commitment to the game plan is keeping the Celtics defense honest.
It hasn’t been a one-man show by any means.
Rookie VJ Edgecombe had a huge Game 2 and is one of the most explosive guards in the NBA. He went 0-of-12 combined on 3s in Game 1 and 3, but still found ways to contribute on both ends.
Paul George gives Philly an experienced shotmaker who can also create offense for others when needed. And Philly still somehow has an advantage in the paint despite missing big man Joel Embiid. They have outscored the Celtics 132 to 106 in paint points.
The Celtics hunt 3-pointers and if they are on, they win the math game easily based on the sheer volume of shots. When they are off, which is a coin flip with this team, they leave the door open for teams to hang around.
The Sixers might not have the horses to win this series without Embiid, nor do they have a player who has shown the ability to reliably close the way Tatum did at the end of Game 3, but they have plenty of ways to keep this game closer than an eight-point margin.
I like the 76ers to keep this game within the number, and I also like Maxey to go over his points prop at 26.5 points.
The Picks: 76ers +7.5 (-105, BetMGM) | Tyrese Maxey Over 26.5 (-125, BetMGM)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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