Tonight, the New York Knicks won’t find out who they’re set to face in their first NBA Finals since 1999, but they should be 80% confident of their opponent.

The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder are tied 2-2, and in such situations, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win the series more than four-fifths of the time. Game 5 is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET tonight in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 217.5. San Antonio is +136 on the Moneyline.

For the playoffs, DraftKings is running a 50% Same-Game Parlay Profit Boost on SGP’s of at least four legs with at least +300 odds (maximum $10 wager). Below, I’ve laid out my favorite qualifying SGP from tonight’s pivotal contest for you to consider.

Best Same Game Parlay for Spurs at Thunder Game 5

Over 217.5

This series has been a battle between unstoppable force and immovable object, as both teams have had top-seven marks in both offensive and defensive rating during both the regular season and the playoffs. However, the offenses have won so far this series, with the over hitting in Games 1, 2, and 3, and Oklahoma City’s shooting an uncharacteristic three-for-17 on wide-open threes in Game 4 was a primary factor in that game’s going under. Both of these teams have good defenses, but they’ve proven adept at adapting offensively, and each team has just enough vulnerabilities. The Spurs give up too many open threes to effectively stop Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams when their shots are falling, and the Thunder have given up too many shots in the paint this series to challenge Victor Wembanyama much.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama 60+ Combined Points

If this game is going to be an offensive battle between these two teams, I might as well back each team’s leading scorer to keep doing his thing. Though they’ve only combined for 60 points in Game 1 before falling short in each of Games 2, 3, and 4, Wembanyama looked more comfortable offensively in Game 4 than he did in either Games 2 or 3 and Gilgeous-Alexander likely would’ve scored more than 19 points in Game 4 if the contest had been more competitive. Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage rate should remain high with Ajay Mitchell and (possibly) Jalen Williams out, and Wembanyama should play heavy minutes in any close contest because San Antonio has been utterly dominated with him off the floor. Gilgeous-Alexander has been somewhat more effective against Stephon Castle this series than he was in the regular season, suggesting that he’s figuring the second-year pro out, and Wembanyama has been unstoppable against pretty much every defender Oklahoma City has thrown at him.

Cason Wallace 2+ Steals

At -152, this is the relatively safe leg of the parlay. Wallace, an All-Defensive Second Teamer this season, has been a defensive menace all series, recording two or more steals in all four games. All in all, he’s had eight multi-steal games in 12 playoff games, and, with Mitchell and possibly Williams sidelined, he should start tonight. The Spurs represent a good matchup; they’ve struggled mightily with turnovers throughout this series, coughing it up even more times than the Cleveland Cavaliers did in their sweep against the Knicks, and 44 of those giveaways have directly turned into steals. Wallace has been the primary defender against Castle, who had 20 turnovers in the series’ first two games. He’s also fairly active in the passing lanes, and some of San Antonio’s players — especially Castle and Wembanyama — are prone to the occasional overly aggressive pass.

Devin Vassell 5+ Rebounds

Vassell had a pretty quiet second round against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he’s proven extremely valuable so far this series, averaging 17.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 45.2% from beyond the arc. All in all, he’s had six or more rebounds in three of the four games and at least five in 10 of 15 playoff games overall. He also leads all Spurs in minutes per game in the conference finals, because his shooting is vital against a team whose tendency to give up open corner threes is its Achilles heel. He’s also getting into the thick of it more, averaging 4.7 more rebound chances per game this series than he did in the regular season. Plus, his rebounds are coming in sustainable positions; among the five San Antonio players averaging at least 10 rebound chances per game this series, only Wembanyama’s boards have come closer to the basket.

Parlay Odds: +850