The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers will face off for a Game 5 matchup tonight, with the series tied at two wins apiece. This series has taken a turn after the Cavaliers won the opening two matchups at home, before traveling to Toronto, where the Raptors evened things up. The action will return to Cleveland tonight, where it is now a best-of-three series.

You can check out the full preview and prediction for the series on DraftKings Network here.

Looking at the odds for Game 5, the Cavaliers enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -360 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Raptors hold +285 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 217.5.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors preview

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to attempt to get over the championship hump, with James Harden expected to be the difference-maker this year. Harden carries plenty of postseason demons himself, but the previous iteration of this Cavaliers team was not living up to expectations, and the organization elected to make the shake-up at the trade deadline. The Cavaliers finished the season 52-30, including 19-7 following Harden’s addition, and secured the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland went 33-49 against the spread, and the game total has gone 40-42 to the over/under in the regular season.

Even following Harden’s addition, Donovan Mitchell still headlines the production for Cleveland. The seven-time All-Star posted averages of 27.9 points, 5.7 assists, and 4.5 rebounds across the regular season. Harden added 20.5 points and 7.7 assists across his 26 games in Cleveland, while Evan Mobley posted averages of 18.2 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Jarrett Allen, Max Strus, Jaylon Tyson, and Dean Wade also play notable roles. It is a clean injury report for Cleveland in the Game 5 matchup.

As a team, the Cavaliers scored 119.5 points per game across the regular season, which ranked fourth in the NBA. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents have scored 115.4 points per game against the Cavaliers, which ranks 15th. They also rank 15th in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 26th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

The Toronto Raptors exceeded expectations in the regular season and proved they were not done just yet by winning back-to-back playoff games. Toronto has laid the foundation to build from moving forward and are reaping the benefits right now. They finished the regular season with a 46-36 overall record to earn the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. On the season, Toronto has gone 42-40 against the spread, and the game total remained under in 50 of their 82 games played.

Immanuel Quickley will miss the Game 5 matchup today with a right hamstring strain. He has not played in this series due to the issue. Scottie Barnes sets the tone for this Raptors team and has impressed in the postseason. He averaged 18.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists across the regular season and has seen these averages grow to 26.7 points, 7.7 assists, and 3.3 rebounds across the first three postseason games. Brandon Ingram was the team’s leading scoring option across the regular season with averages of 21.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while RJ Barrett added 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists this season. Collin Murray-Boyles, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jakob Poeltl, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Jamal Shead also play notable roles.

Darko Rajakovic’s squad averaged 114.6 points per game across the regular season, which ranks 21st in the NBA. The Raptors also rank 15th in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage, and 21st in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.8 points per game against Toronto, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Toronto also ranks fifth in defensive rating, 10th in opponents’ field-goal percentage, and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Series Takeaways

The Cavaliers tallied a convincing 126-113 win in the opening matchup of the series. Cleveland broke the game open in the third quarter by outscoring them 36-22 in the period as Mitchell led the charge with 32 points. This was despite the Raptors shooting 52% from the floor and 48% from beyond the three-point arc. The Cavaliers covered the 8.5-point spread, and the game total went over the 221.5 number.

In Game 2, Toronto fell 115-105 in a game that the Cavaliers led from wire-to-wire. The matchup remained competitive, with the lead never extending beyond 16, but the Raptors were never able to flip the script and take control. Brandon Ingram struggled greatly, finishing with seven points on 3-for-15 shooting, and Toronto shot just 27% from the perimeter. On the other side, Harden, Mitchell, and Mobley each scored 25+ points. Cleveland covered the 9.5-point spread, and the game total remained under the 221.5 line.

Toronto was able to pull off a win in Game 3 in their first matchup in front of the home crowd by a score of 126-104. The Raptors led for 80% of the matchup and stretched this to as large as 25. They shot an impressive 57% from the field and 61% on three-point attempts, with Scottie Barnes leading the charge with his 33 points and 11 assists. No member of the Cavaliers’ starting lineup was able to crack 18 points. Toronto won outright as 2.5-point underdogs, and the game total went over the 221.5 line.

This trend continued in Game 4, with the Raptors producing a 93-89 win. Toronto shot just 4-for-30 (13.3%) on three-point attempts, which is the lowest three-point percentage from a team with at least 25 perimeter attempts in a playoff win in NBA history. Cleveland shot just 25% from beyond the arc and 37% from the field themselves to keep the window open for the Raptors to produce the win. Harden’s turnover issues have proven problematic, with the former MVP turning the ball over 15 times across his past two games.

Through the opening four games, the home team is undefeated. The home team has also covered the spread in each matchup, while the game total is 2-2 to the over/under.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 5 prediction, pick

It has been a tale of two home teams thus far in this series. With the action returning to Cleveland, expect more of the same.

Toronto deserves a ton of credit for leaning on its defense for production and not allowing its offensive concerns to weigh them down. But it is not sustainable to shoot 32% from the floor and 13% on three-pointers and produce wins. As much as the Raptors deserve credit, plenty of these issues have also felt self-inflicted from the Cavaliers’ perspective.

After averaging 14.0 turnovers per game across the regular season, Cleveland has coughed it up 17, 14, 22, and 18 times across the first four games. They have the personnel to produce a massive rebounding advantage with Toronto playing plenty of minutes. But they have failed to exploit this thus far. Donovan Mitchell has also been held to 43.8% and 25% shooting from the field over the past two games and has combined for just 35 points.

It feels like everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Cavaliers across these past two games. Returning home is exactly what they need. Cleveland is a better team than they have shown, and they have gone 27-14 at home this season. Expect a spirited effort from Mitchell and Harden to do a better job taking care of the ball, and some positive shooting regression for this Cavaliers team. There are advantages that they have failed to capitalize on, and expect these to be put on display tonight.

The Cavaliers are the better team, which we’ll see in tonight’s matchup against the youthful Raptors roster. Cleveland won by double-digits in each of the first two games at home and looks to replicate this tonight. Back the Cavaliers to score at a rate that the Raptors cannot match and cover the 9.5-point number in the process.

Best Bet: Cavaliers -9.5 (-105)