The first game of Monday’s MLB schedule is the start of a new series in the American League between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at 6:10 p.m. ET. Both teams have playoff aspirations and are off to strong starts to the season. Let’s dive into Monday’s matchup and come up with a Rays-Guardians prediction for this contest.

The Guardians are tied with the Tigers for the top spot in the AL Central at 15-14 after losing back-to-back games to end their trip to Toronto. The Rays are still 1.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East, despite winning four straight at home over the Reds and Twins over the last week to improve to 16-11.

The series starts with a pair of lefties on the mound at Progressive Field as Parker Messick gets the ball for the Guardians against Steven Matz and the Rays. It should be a solid matchup since the two southpaws are a combined 6-1 on the year.

The Guardians are home favorites at -143 on the moneyline, with the over/under at a low 7.5 runs. Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rays vs. Guardians prediction, preview

The Rays swept the Twins, outscoring Minnesota 16-4 at the Trop over the weekend. Yandy Diaz homered and Jonathan Aranda had two RBI in the team’s 4-2 win on Sunday. Chandler Simpson had three hits from the leadoff spot and is hitting .321 on the season with nine stolen bases, after picking up a theft on Sunday as well.

On the mound, Tampa used Griffin Jax as an opener and Jesse Scholtens as a bulk reliever. They’ll go back to a traditional approach on Monday, with Matz making his sixth start of the season.

Matz has gone 3-1 with a 4.81 ERA and 5.12 FIP on the season, giving up a 40.9% hard-hit rate and an elevated 13.6% barrel rate. He gave up four runs in three innings against the Reds, giving up three homers and taking his first loss.

All five of the homers he has allowed this year have been to right-handed hitters, who have hit .246 against him with a .538 SLG and .390 wOBA.

The Guardians lineup is typically stocked with lefties, but options like Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Kyle Manzardo and Bo Naylor could be out of the lineup as part of their platoons. Angel Martinez, Rhys Hoskins and David Fry could get the start instead.

Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter who will face Matz from the right side and has had more success this season against lefties, going 9-for-30 (.300) with four homers on that side of the splits.

On the mound, Messick will look to continue his success. He has held opponents to just six runs in his five starts, working to a 1.76 ERA and 2.56 FIP. The 25-year-old has 29 strikeouts in 30.2 innings, and he will be making his third straight start at home. He did give up three runs in five innings to the Astros in his last start, but it was his first start in which he has given up more than two runs.

Rays vs. Guardians pick, best bet

Best Bet: Guardians -1.5 (+149)

Even though the Rays come in on a roll, I’m a big Messick believer. Matz has been getting knocked around more in his last few starts, and the Guardians bats could come alive as they return to the ‘Land.

Strong Lean: Jose Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases (+101)

Ramirez has 48 total bases in his 29 games this season (1.7 per game). He went 0-for-3 on Sunday, but he had a six-game hitting streak before that. His success at home and against southpaws set up for success this Monday.