The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics meet for the seventh time this series, with the winner moving on to face the New York Knicks.

Boston won two of the first three games despite splitting at home. Joel Embiid did not play in any of the those contests. Embiid has played in the last three contests and Philadelphia has won two of three. Coincidence? I think not.

In these playoffs, Boston is fourth in offensive rating and ninth in defense. Philadelphia is eighth on offense and 13th on defense.

DraftKings Sportsbook lists BOS as a 7.5-point favorite over PHI with the total set at 205.5.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Game 7 Special [$100K to 1st] (PHI at BOS)

Captain’s Picks

Joel Embiid ($15,600 CP): Father Time and the injury gods have definitely been in cahoots to bring Embiid to the other side, but Embiid is still ticking, albeit at a far slower pace than before. He is still a potent fantasy force, garnering a usage rate of 35% while scoring 47, 50.5 and 52 FPTS in the three games he’s played. No one on the Celtics can handle Embiid, so he’s going to get his. When Boston sends help, Embiid is a more-than-adept passer and has dished six, eight and eight dimes. Outside of injury or foul trouble, Embiid is going to get his. It’s just a matter of how much.

UTIL Plays

Jayson Tatum ($11,000): The usage rate hasn’t been as robust for Tatum as it has been for Embiid – 26.6% – but Tatum is high up on the offensive totem pole and will no doubt be heavily involved. In the first five games of the series, Tatum put up over 50 FPTS in four with 45.8 FPTS in the other. He finished with only 36.2 FPTS in Game 6, but that was due to blowout and playing only 29 minutes. I’d expect a closely-fought game in this one so Tatum should play close to 40 minutes.

Derrick White ($7,000): White has been awful this series, shooting 30% from the field. He has two games with fewer than 20 FPTS and hasn’t exceeded 27 FPTS in any contest. The return of Tatum has crimped his style for sure. That said, White still contributes a little something something across the board and the ownership will likely be low due to recent history. The probabilities are high that this blows up in my face, but White isn’t this poor of a shooter, as he’s a career 43% shooter from the field and was at 39% during the regular. That’s not great, but it’s better than the current mark.

Quentin Grimes ($4,800): The range of outcomes is wide for Grimes, as he’s exceeded 23 FPTS twice but gone under 15 FPTS four times with a low of 8.8 FPTS. Grimes likely won’t play more than 24 minutes and he doesn’t contribute much in the periphery categories, but he has the ability to get hot off the bench in a microwave role.

Fades

Jaylen Brown ($10,200): During the regular season with Tatum out, Brown garnered a usage rate over 35%. With Tatum back in the mix, that number is down to the 31% range. Still good, but a big decrease for sure. Brown does have two games with 55.8 and 45.2 FPTS, and he’s talented enough to pop off on any given night, but the more likely scenario is that he ends up in the 30 FPTS range, something he’s done in three games this series.

The Outcome

Margin of victory for each game this series: 32, 14, 8, 32, 16 and 13 points. I’m not expecting a blowout in this one. Instead, a close, grind-it-out affair with the home crowd energizing the Celtics to victory.

Final Score: Celtics 107, 76ers 104