The Detroit Pistons were this close to being one game away from making the Eastern Conference Finals, holding a nine-point lead with as little as two minutes, 37 seconds left on the clock. Then, the Cleveland Cavaliers made a last-second charge, and Detroit shot just four-for-11 in overtime to lose, 117-113.

Now, the Cavaliers are one game away from making their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2018 (and the first of Donovan Mitchell’s career). All they have to do is beat the Pistons tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena, where they have not lost yet these playoffs.

Cleveland also has the health advantage; while it has no players on the injury report for tonight’s game, Kevin Huerter (adductor), Caris LeVert (heel), and Duncan Robinson (back) are all questionable for Detroit. LeVert and Huerter played in Game 5; Robinson did not.

The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 209.5. The Pistons are +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s potential clincher.

Cade Cunningham 45+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+126)

Cunningham was basically the only Detroit player who showed up on Wednesday night, recording 39 points, seven rebounds, and six assists and hitting a jumper with 25 seconds left on the clock that would’ve cut the lead to one had his toe not been on the line. With Robinson absent and his “co-star”, Jalen Duren, bottled up again in what has been a miserable playoff run, Cunningham had to take the scoring load into his own hands, attempting 27 shots. All in all, among 67 players to play at least 200 minutes this postseason, Cunningham ranks second in usage rate, just a tick behind Joel Embiid.

Some of Cleveland’s defensive strategies have been more successful than others. Dean Wade has seen the plurality of the minutes against him and has been excellent, holding him to just five-for-17 shooting, but Max Strus (16-for-27) and James Harden (nine-for-18) haven’t been so successful. One of the Cavaliers’ goals this series has been to turn restricted-area tries into floaters, and while they’ve done so effectively — Cunningham has attempted 15 more non-restricted paint shots than layups this series — his 28.6% accuracy on such looks is likely to rebound towards the 42.0% that he posted in the regular season. In general, I also just don’t trust the Cleveland defense, as it ranked just 18th in defensive rating in the regular season after acquiring Harden.

Donovan Mitchell 5+ Rebounds (-107)

Despite never reaching the conference finals in eight seasons combined between the Cavaliers and the Utah Jazz, Mitchell has consistently been a playoff riser, with higher career playoff averages in both points (28.0) and rebounds (5.0) per game relative to the regular season. In fact, Game 5 was just the fourth time in 12 postseason games in which he’s failed to grab at least five rebounds, and he had a 35-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 3, the third 10-plus-rebound playoff game of his career. He’s averaging 10.0 rebound chances per game so far this series, an uptick over the 8.1 per game he recorded in the regular season.

On paper, the Pistons are a pretty tough team for opposing rebounders, given that they rank fourth in total rebounding percentage in both the regular season and the playoffs. However, Detroit’s defensive style bodes well for opposing guards to get boards; because the Pistons do such an excellent job keeping opponents out of the restricted area, allowing the fewest shots at the rim per game, they give up among the most above-the-break threes. Of Mitchell’s 5.3 boards per game these playoffs, 2.2 of them have come off of missed jumpers, so he could be a factor on the offensive glass; indeed, he snagged one offensive rebound in each of the first four games of the series. Additionally, while Detroit’s tenacity on drives would ordinarily decrease rebound chances for a guard by introducing shorter caroms, Mitchell has mostly guarded Robinson, a three-point specialist.

Tobias Harris 2+ Steals (+114)

Harris hasn’t shot the ball very efficiently across either of the Pistons’ last two games, combining for 29 total points on six-for-18 (33.3%) shooting. However, he at least made a defensive impact in both games, recording two steals and a block in Game 4 and one steal and a block in Game 5. All in all, Harris is averaging a playoff career-high in steals per game, having swiped at least two in seven of his 12 postseason games, including three of the five this series.

Cleveland has generally done a good job taking care of the ball this series, but it was a barely-above-average ball-protecting team during the regular season. His defensive assignment should help; he’s mostly guarded Evan Mobley this series, and while Mobley doesn’t handle the ball much, a majority of his turnovers during the regular season were lost-ball giveaways. Additionally, Mobley is the most frequent recipient of Harden’s passes, and a vast majority of Harden’s turnovers are a result of bad passes. Harris set a new career-high with six steals on February 27; all six came on bad passes, though none by Harden.