Sunday’s Game 4 meeting between the Spurs and Timberwolves was an instant classic. Minnesota eked out a 114-109 win to even up this Western Conference semifinals series, thanks in part to a Victor Wembanyama ejection. Now, San Antonio will hope to regain some momentum Tuesday evening at home. Can Anthony Edwards and company pull off a Game 5 upset?

The Spurs are 10.5-point favorites (-105) over the Timberwolves on DraftKings Sportsbook. San Antonio is favored at -380 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 218.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Tuesday’s Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs postseason matchup.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction, preview

The Timberwolves, despite their victory over the weekend, shouldn’t be resting on any laurels. Squeaking out a win at home against a Wembanyama-less Spurs squad isn’t the most impressive achievement. Still, this is the postseason; there are no moral victories. Besides, it’s not as if this group didn’t take down San Antonio at full strength in Game 1. A better showing from Julius Randle (12 PTS, 8 REB, 6 TO) is also a reasonable expectation. Minnesota’s other All-Star has struggled throughout this series, averaging 14.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 37% from the field.

If the Wolves are going to earn another victory, it’ll likely be on the strength of their defense. To be more specific, this is one of the most stifling front courts in recent NBA history. Jaden McDaniels has been a breakout star this postseason, showcasing his terrific two-way skills. Inside the paint, four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert remains an elite rim protector. He managed to hold Wembanyama to a combined 30 points in Games 1 & 2. With that being said, San Antonio’s face of the franchise bounced back with 39 points on 72% shooting in Game 3. After his quick exit on Sunday, Wemby should come out with a chip on his shoulder tonight.

Granted, it’s not as if this Spurs team is just Wembanyama. San Antonio has the luxury of rostering two other co-stars, led by former Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. The do-it-all guard has averaged 18.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game this postseason. Castle has been consistent as well, scoring at least 15 points in eight of his nine playoff appearances. That’s been needed given the inconsistent production of former All-Star De’Aaron Fox. The former Kings standout is putting up 18.7 points on mediocre 44/31/68 shooting splits this postseason. As of Tuesday afternoon, Fox (ankle) is listed as questionable to play.

With Wembanyama back on the court, there should be more open looks for the Spurs tonight. However, that’s easier said than done. Minnesota excels at guarding the perimeter, holding opponents to an NBA-worst 11.9 three-pointers made per game. In this series, San Antonio has gone 44-of-134 from beyond the arc (32.8% 3PT). Still, it felt like the Spurs figured something out during their Game 2 and 3 performances. Wemby’s presence, even if his shot is off, is enough to raise everyone’s floor. On the other side, improved offense from Randle, in addition to Edwards’ stellar play, wouldn’t come as a surprise.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs pick, best bet

Despite their reputations as elite defensive units, these squads love pushing the pace. Both teams ranked within the NBA’s top 13 clubs in pace of play this season. San Antonio and Minnesota have gone over 218.5 total points in three of four games in this series. That’s despite inconsistent shooting from both sides in these Western Conference semifinals. Given this double-digit point spread, the safest bet available tonight feels like the over.

Best Bet: Timberwolves vs. Spurs over 218.5 total points (-108)