We’re more than a quarter of the way through the MLB season, and the landscape is beginning to take shape. Before you know it, the trade deadline will come around, and teams will have to take stock of their outlook on the season. As it stands, the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks have to be unhappy and may face difficult questions if they can’t start picking up wins. Which team will capture some momentum in this NL West rivalry matchup?

First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks are -136 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Giants upset is priced at +113. The game total is set at O/U nine runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Giants vs. Diamondbacks game.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

Robbie Ray steps to the mound for the Giants. The 34-year-old lefty may be heading towards the end of his tenure as a Giant if the team can’t turn it around; veterans pitching well on expiring deals are always a commodity around the deadline. And he is indeed pitching well, posting a 3.04 ERA through 50.1 innings with 49 strikeouts to his name.

The underlying numbers are a bit concerning. While Ray has never been a pitch-to-contact guy, his ground-ball rates have bottomed out. If he’s not striking you out — which, to be fair, he can still do often — he’s relying on missing the barrel and inducing soft-contact flyouts. It’s no wonder that nearly all of Ray’s earned runs have come via the home run; he has given up 10 big flies and 17 total earned runs. It’s a very unique pitching profile for the prolific grunter.

Opposite him is Zac Gallen, another veteran who may have to keep Zillow bookmarked this summer. Gallen was heading into the final year of his deal in 2025 and was expected to be a significant deadline day name. But in the midst of a career-worst season, nobody was biting; now Gallen is back in the desert on a one-year deal and will be forced to play the deadline waiting game once again.

Based on his numbers this year, Gallen may be safe in the desert. Gallen’s 5.02 ERA is supported by poor strikeout rates, high hard-contact rates, and a brutal .293 expected batting average. If his ability to miss bats has eroded, the results will remain rough.

Arizona’s lineup hasn’t stunned many people this year. They’re too star-reliant, and the early-season slumps by Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo haven’t helped things. Journeyman Ildemaro Vargas, hitting like prime Michael Young, has made a big difference, but they need depth down the order to sustain success.

But they look like the Murderer’s Row Yankees compared to the Giants. San Francisco’s 88 wRC+ as a unit is fourth-worst in baseball, and they have exactly three hitters with an OPS+ above league average: Casey Schmitt, Luis Arraez, and Heliot Ramos (who is currently on the IL). Their four highest-paid batters—Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee—all have lacked production this season. When everyone you paid to be good turns out to be the opposite, that’s a rough sign for your team.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Pick, Best Bet

Even at Chase Field, I’m surprised to see such a high total in this game. Ray is typically a sub-All-Star-level pitcher in the first half of the season, and will find success against a team that is below league-average at hitting the long ball. Gallen has been a far worse pitcher, but this Giants lineup is full of holes, and the absence of Ramos only makes things worse.

I wouldn’t go so far as to call this a pitchers’ duel, but the under has all the value here.

Best Bet: Under 9 Total Runs (-103)