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Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards during an NBA game.

The Minnesota Timberwolves got the Game 4 win they needed. The early outlook for Game 5 is much less comfortable.

San Antonio enters Tuesday night’s matchup as a heavy favorite at home, with ESPN’s odds page listing the Spurs as 9.5-point favorites via DraftKings. ESPN’s matchup predictor also gives San Antonio a 77.1% chance to win the game, a rough pregame signal for a Timberwolves team trying to take control of a series tied 2-2.

The line is not just about home court. It also reflects the biggest non- scoreboard development coming out of Game 4: Victor Wembanyama will be available for Game 5 after his ejection for a flagrant 2 foul on Naz Reid.

Minnesota survived Game 4 with Wembanyama gone for most of the night. It will not get the same break in San Antonio.

DraftKings Puts the Timberwolves as Big Underdogs Against the San Antonio Spurs

The Timberwolves won Game 4, 114-109, behind a fourth-quarter surge from Anthony Edwards, evening the Western Conference semifinals at two games apiece. But ESPN’s Game 5 page still shows San Antonio as a nearly double-digit favorite, with the Spurs owning home court at Frost Bank Center.

That is bad news for Minnesota because Game 5 is usually the swing game in a tied series. Win it, and the Wolves would head back to Minnesota with a chance to close the series. Lose it, and they would need to win Game 6 just to force a return trip to San Antonio.

The Spurs have already shown how dangerous that environment can be. San Antonio beat Minnesota by 38 points in Game 2, then stole Game 3 in Minneapolis before the Wolves answered in Game 4. The teams have traded momentum through four games, but the Spurs still have two of the final three possible games at home.

The betting market is not a prediction of destiny. It is, however, a snapshot of how difficult oddsmakers believe Minnesota’s assignment is, even after the Wolves just won.

NBA’s Decision to Not Suspend Victor Wembanyama Factors Into the Line

The biggest reason the Game 5 setup feels different from the end of Game 4 is Wembanyama.

The Spurs star was ejected in the second quarter of Game 4 after elbowing Reid while securing a rebound.The play was reviewed and ruled a flagrant 2, which carries an automatic ejection. The NBA did not add a suspension, leaving Wembanyama eligible for Game 5.

That matters on both ends of the floor.

Minnesota got a rare chance to play most of a playoff game without having to solve Wembanyama’s rim protection, rebounding radius and offensive gravity. Even then, the Wolves only won by five. Edwards had to score 36 points, including 16 in the fourth quarter, to pull Minnesota through.

With Wembanyama back, the Wolves’ margin for error shrinks. Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and Julius Randle have to battle him on the glass without fouling. Edwards has to finish through or around one of the league’s most disruptive defenders. Minnesota’s shooters have to punish help when San Antonio loads up on the lane.

That is why the NBA’s decision was bigger than a discipline note. It changed the Game 5 math.

Anthony Edwards Is Playing at Less Than 100%, Though the Timberwolves Have Limited New Injury Concerns

The Wolves’ best news is that Edwards is not listed on the NBA’s official 12:15 p.m. injury report for Game 5. The only Minnesota player listed is Donte DiVincenzo, who remains out because of a right Achilles tendon repair.

That does not mean Edwards is at full strength.

Edwards returned earlier in the series after hyperextending his left knee. He came back just 10 days after the injury. He then powered through Game 4 with one of the biggest performances of Minnesota’s season.

The Wolves can live with Edwards being less than perfect if he keeps producing like a star. The problem is that Game 5 asks him to do it again on the road, against a Spurs team getting Wembanyama back and defending home court with the series tied.

There is one notable injury concern on San Antonio’s side. De’Aaron Fox is listed as questionable on the official NBA injury report with right ankle soreness. Fox landed on the report after Game 4, when he scored 24 points but shot 8-of-23 from the field and 1-of-7 from 3-point range.

Fox’s status could soften the outlook for San Antonio if he is limited or unavailable. But the headline for Minnesota remains the same: the Spurs are favored, Wembanyama is cleared, and Edwards may need another heavy-lift performance for the Timberwolves to steal Game 5.