Turkiye has unveiled a prototype of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as part of a push to become self-reliant and to gain a foothold as a key defence player in the Middle East and among its NATO allies.

The ICBM, named Yildirimhan, meaning “lightning” in Turkish and developed by the Defence Ministry’s research and development centre, was unveiled on Tuesday at the SAHA 2026 Defence and Aerospace Exhibition at the Istanbul Expo Centre.

Why is this ICBM model significant, and what does it mean for Turkiye’s defence industry? Here’s what we know:

What do we know about the Yildirimhan missile and why is it significant?

The Yildirimhan has a range of 6,000km (3,278 miles). According to the Federation of American Scientists, ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 5,500km (roughly 3,418 miles) are classed as ICBMs. If launched from Turkiye, the Yildirimhan will be able to hit targets across Europe, Africa and Asia.

According to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, the ICBM’s maximum speed is Mach 25, which is 25 times the speed of sound. It has four rocket propulsion engines and is fuelled by liquid nitrogen tetroxide. Its warhead has a payload capacity of 3,000kg.

Turkiye has not begun the production of the missile yet.

Addressing the exhibition in Istanbul on Tuesday, Defence Minister Yasar Guler said, “In this era where economic cost has become an asymmetric weapon, Turkiye offers its allies not only weapon systems but also technology and a sustainable security economy.”

Experts say the launch of a Turkish ICBM is significant for a number of reasons.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, regional director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, told Al Jazeera, “In my view, Turkiye does not need ICBMs to deter any immediate security threat it is facing. Therefore, it is not the ICBM, but the capability to produce it that is significant for Turkiye.”

Burak Yildirim, an Istanbul-based security and defence analyst,  said the Yildirimhan said the design of an ICBM was indirectly important for Turkey’s civilian space launch efforts; specifically the Delta-V programme, which is entirely civil and commercial in mandate, and aims to place Turkish satellites into orbit using the country’s own rockets.

“The physics of reaching orbit and the physics of intercontinental ballistic trajectory are closely related; the technology overlaps. In that sense, an ICBM-class capability is a natural if politically consequential-derivative of a serious space programme,” he told Al Jazeera.

“That said, we should be precise about what was actually unveiled at SAHA 2026: a concept, presented in mock-up form. There are no confirmed flight tests, technical specifications remain limited, and critical subsystems have not been publicly accounted for in any consistent detail. Even the most likely future test facility – a base in Somalia – has not yet been constructed. This is an announced ambition, not a fielded capability,” he added.

Ali Bakir, a senior nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said the prototype marks a breakthrough for Ankara.

“This development symbolises a leap in its missile capabilities and technological advancement, enabling Turkiye to join the exclusive ranks of a handful of countries possessing such advanced defensive technologies,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Furthermore, this milestone underscores Ankara’s commitment not only to enhance its military power and defensive capabilities but also to strengthen its deterrence, positioning itself as a key ultra-regional power,” Bakir added.

Why has Turkiye developed Yildirimhan?

The unveiling of the new missile comes amid serious tensions in the Middle East. While a fragile ceasefire between the warring sides in the US-Israel war on Iran holds following six weeks of strikes, a naval battle is playing out in the Gulf as Tehran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and the US enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Israel continues to violate “ceasefires” reached in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

In March, when Iran was retaliating against the US-Israeli strikes by attacking US military assets and infrastructure in the Middle East, Ankara reported that NATO’s air defences shot down ballistic missiles fired towards Turkiye on March 4 and 9. Tehran denied firing any missiles at Turkiye and suggested Israel could be behind them as acts of sabotage.

In February, just days before the US-Israel war on Iran began, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose party is projected to do well in the national election this year, was the latest prominent politician to declare Turkiye a threat to Israel.

Speaking at a conference, Bennett said Israel must not “turn a blind eye” to Turkiye, accusing it of being part of a regional axis “similar to the Iranian one”.

“A new Turkish threat is emerging,” Bennett said. “We must act in different ways, but simultaneously against the threat from Tehran and against the hostility from Ankara.”

Other Israeli politicians have made similar comments in the past few months. Turkiye, which has been seen as growing closer to other regional powers, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, has strongly criticised Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza as well as violence inflicted on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank by Israeli settlers, often with support from Israeli forces.

While Israel has had an openly antagonistic relationship with Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Israel-Turkiye relations have taken a more pragmatic line. However, since coming to power in the early 2000s, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been increasingly critical of Israel.

“The blood-stained genocide network continues to kill innocent children, women, and civilians without any rule or principle, ignoring all kinds of human values,” Erdogan said about Israel while addressing an international conference in Istanbul in April.

Bakir told Al Jazeera that fears around Israel are not the main factor behind the development of the ICBM, but the timing and nature of Turkiye’s advances with ballistic missiles are clearly intended to send messages to both allies and adversaries, including to “an increasingly hegemonic, expansive and aggressive Israel”.

“This development aligns with the long-term vision of the Justice and Development Party [AKP] and President Erdogan to reduce reliance on foreign defence equipment, increase self-sufficiency and establish a robust domestic defence industry that meets global standards,” he said.

“This initiative aims to address national needs, strengthen the country’s strategic autonomy, and tackle regional and international threats to Ankara’s national security and interests. This policy is proactive rather than reactionary,” Bakir added.

Yildirim, the Istanbul-based security analyst, said Israel’s demonstrated willingness to conduct deep strikes across the Middle East, including against state actors, has not gone unnoticed in Ankara.

“Turkiye and Israel have no formal conflict, but their strategic interests have diverged sharply, and the political relationship has deteriorated significantly in recent years. When Turkish officials speak of systems capable of reaching distant targets, the geography speaks for itself,” he said.

“But reducing this [unveiling of the ICBM] to a Turkey-Israel dynamic would be too narrow. Turkey is simultaneously managing a post-war Syria on its border, an unresolved situation in the Eastern Mediterranean, ongoing tensions with actors in Iraq and, critically, it recently experienced ballistic missiles fired from Iran being intercepted by NATO assets over its territory. Turkey is encircled by instability, and it is drawing the conclusion that abstract alliance guarantees are insufficient. It wants hard, sovereign deterrence,” he added.

The Yildirimhan announcement, he said, “is less about a specific threat and more about Turkiye declaring that it intends to be the kind of country that cannot be coerced by anyone, from anywhere.”

According to Turkiye’s Hurriyet Daily News, unveiling the ICBM, the defence minister said recent conflicts, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and the US-Israel war on Iran, have had an impact on the global security scenario.

“These conflicts and wars have provided very critical data for security doctrine while also increasing our responsibilities,” Guler said.

German Marshall Fund’s Unluhisarcikli said the volatility in the region and the direct and indirect security challenges Turkiye is facing as a result are the main reasons for enhancing its military capabilities.

“Other factors that should be considered are Turkiye’s commitment as a NATO ally to increase its defence spending to 5 percent of its GDP, export-oriented defence industrial policy, using defence cooperation as a tool of diplomacy and using defence industry as a catalyst to upgrading the technological intensity of its overall industrial production,” he added.

In June last year, leaders from the 32-member military bloc pledged to allocate up to 5 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defence and related sectors by 2035, describing the move as a “quantum leap” in collective security. The pledge was made in a NATO summit communique agreed in The Hague, and US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly pushed for a higher NATO defence spending commitment, took credit for the shift.

How significant is Turkiye’s military force?

Turkiye is home to NATO’s second-largest standing army and has emerged as a notable weapons exporter.

It has sought military self-sufficiency for some time, a gradual process that saw it establish the Defence Industry Development and Support Administration Office (SaGeB) in 1985.

For years, SaGeB focused on international collaboration in research and development. But as Turkiye came up against restrictions on what weapons it could buy and how it could use them, it switched to local production.

In the 2010s, it started focusing on domestic design, resulting in a huge increase in domestic defence production.

Yildirim noted that with the announcement of the Yildirimhan, Ankara can demonstrate that its military reach extends well beyond its immediate neighbourhood.

“By associating itself with ICBM-class systems, Turkey is communicating that it sees itself as a global actor; one capable of finding partners and projecting relevance in regions far beyond its traditional strategic hinterland. The message is less about the missile itself today, and more about the kind of power Turkey believes it is becoming,” he said.

He noted that Turkey’s broader defence expansion is also driven by a logic that predates any single regional flashpoint.

“For decades, Ankara was heavily dependent on foreign suppliers – primarily the United States and Western Europe – for its most critical military systems. The current drive toward indigenous capability is, at its core, a sovereignty project,” he added.

Uluhisarcikli from German Marshall Fund said Turkiye is also doing “what all NATO allies have agreed to do at The Hague Summit – to increase defence spending to 5 percent of their GDPs”.

“Moreover, Turkiye is a critical ally in NATO’s southern flank and pivotal in securing the Black Sea-Mediterranean connection through the Turkish Straits. Therefore, a stronger Turkiye means a stronger NATO,” he added.

Today, thousands of Turkish defence manufacturers span land, air, and naval capabilities, something which is being increasingly recognised internationally.

According to local media reports, the country’s defence and aerospace exports reached an all-time high of $10.05bn in 2025.

Believed to be the most famous Turkish unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the Bayraktar TB2 is one of the most widely bought Turkish defence products.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Turkiye’s main customers during 2021-24 were the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Qatar.

As for its most famous export, the Bayraktar medium-altitude long-endurance drone has reportedly been exported to at least 31 countries, including Iraq, Ukraine, Kenya, Bangladesh and Japan.