EXPLAINER
As the Premier League season enters its final games, several teams still dream of entry into Europe’s top football competition.
Manchester United’s 3-2 victory over Liverpool on Sunday confirmed that they are headed back to the UEFA Champions League (UCL) after a two-year absence.
With Arsenal and Manchester City also already guaranteed to be playing in European football’s elite club competition next season, that leaves at least two more spots still to be filled.
While the teams that finish in the top five automatically secure qualification for the Champions League, there is also a scenario in which a sixth team could also take part in next season’s competition.
England’s Premier League has been allocated a fifth Champions League place called the European Performance Spot (EPS), which is awarded to the two leagues with the strongest performances across the three main European club competitions.
If Aston Villa win the Europa League (which in itself normally secures entry to the Champions League) and finish fifth in the league, then the team that finishes sixth would take the EPS spot to play in the UCL.
If Villa were to finish fourth and win the Europa League, then the EPS spot would not be passed down, and the fifth-placed side would get the final Champions League berth, with the sixth-placed team qualifying for the Europa League.
Villa currently trail Nottingham Forest 1-0 after their Europa League semifinal last week. The second leg will be at Villa Park on Thursday.
Meanwhile, if 16th-placed Forest were to win the Europa League, they would become the sixth English team to qualify for the Champions League.
The defeat to United leaves Liverpool in fourth place with 58 points from 35 games, with three games left to play – six points ahead of sixth-placed Bournemouth.
Liverpool would only need a point to secure qualification if Bournemouth lose or draw their next game (away at Fulham), but if the Cherries win that game, then the Reds would need four more points to qualify.
Arne Slot’s side do face a tricky run-in with games against top-half sides – including against fifth-placed Villa.
Villa’s 2-1 defeat at home to Tottenham on Sunday leaves them in fifth place, also with 58 points from 35 games. They are behind Liverpool on goal difference.
Like Liverpool, they would only need a point to secure qualification if Bournemouth lose or draw their next game, but four if the Cherries win.
The Cherries bolstered their unlikely push for UCL qualification with a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace on Sunday, leaving them with 52 points from 35 games.
Bournemouth’s chances of finishing in the top five seem slim, considering the six-point gap. They need to win at least two of their final three games and hope Liverpool or Villa drop a lot of points.
But even if sixth place ends up being enough to secure Champions League football, the Cherries have Brentford and Brighton breathing down their necks in seventh and eighth place, respectively.
The seventh-placed Bees are on 51 points from 35 games, making it even more unlikely that they could secure a top finish as they are seven points behind Liverpool and Villa with three games to go. Sixth place is very much a possibility, however.
Eight-placed Brighton are on 50 points, meaning they could only finish in the top five if they win their last three games and either Villa or Liverpool take no more than a point from their final games. Even if they can win all their games, they would still require a superior goal difference to finish fifth if Liverpool or Villa just take a single point in the rest of the season.
Ninth-placed Chelsea have 48 points, but they have four games left to play, meaning they could theoretically finish on 60 points if they can finish out the rest of the season with a 100 percent win record.
That seems rather unlikely, however, given that the Blues have lost their last six Premier League games in a row. The first test of this run will be this evening as they take on Forest at Stamford Bridge.
Incredibly, 11th-placed Everton could technically finish as high as fourth as they are on 47 points with four games left to play.
If they won all their remaining games, they would be on 59 points. But to finish fourth, they would have to hope that Villa and Liverpool draw with each other and lose their other remaining games, that their goal difference would be superior, and that other sides above them drop a lot of points.
This is starting to get really silly now, but several other teams could finish as high as sixth if results go their way: Fulham (in 10th place on 48 points), Sunderland (in 12th place on 47 points), Newcastle (in 13th place on 45 points), Leeds (in 14th place and on 43 points) and even Crystal Palace (in 15th place and 43 points but with four games remaining).
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