President Trump's state visit to China will be closely watched in the American heartland, where his trade war has resulted in grain farmers losing considerable business from international buyers.

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President Trump's state visit to China will be closely watched in the American heartland. Farmers have been hit hard by inflation and flat commodity prices, and Trump's trade war has resulted in China buying a lot fewer soybeans from the U.S. NPR's Kirk Siegler reports that farmers are anxious for a finalized trade deal.

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KIRK SIEGLER, BYLINE: Grain bound for export from Pacific Northwest ports is once again moving out of the Arthur Companies' elevator in Pillsbury, North Dakota.

HANK BROWN: The truck will be on its way and out of here in two to three minutes.

SIEGLER: It's a big relief to general manager Hank Brown. Historically, half of all the soybeans grown in North Dakota have been shipped to China. But last year, after President Trump imposed his Liberation Day tariffs, China stopped buying and turned to Brazil. And the 150 farmers around here who supply this grain elevator were worried their beans would rot.

BROWN: We were storing beans through harvest. We had a large amount of beans. We actually had one of our big bunkers, which is 2 million bushels, full of soybeans that were not marketed.

SIEGLER: Then late last year, China agreed to resume buying American soybeans, about 11 million metric tons. The White House has promised that agreement will more than double to 25 million this year, but there's nothing in writing yet.

BROWN: Every day, it seems like the last handful of years, most of the market drivers are geopolitical-driven, so we have to pay attention to it a lot. And we need to make sure that we have good trade agreements and that we keep the American farmer in business.

SIEGLER: President Trump's summit with President Xi Jinping comes as most American row crop farmers are going into spring planting in their fourth straight year in the red.

JUSTIN SHERLOCK: North Dakota - we don't get a large planting window, so you have to have your equipment ready to go.

SIEGLER: Soybean farmer Justin Sherlock is paying a lot more to fill up the tractors in this huge garage with diesel due to the Iran war.

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SIEGLER: But he's trying to keep positive.

SHERLOCK: I feel slightly more optimistic than I did a year ago. A year ago, we had no idea what was going to happen with trade. You know, the trade talks were being blown up. We were told we should just get used to selling domestically. Well, we can't use it all here in the United States. We produce too much.

SIEGLER: Sherlock says the administration has come around on understanding the benefits of trade, but still, more than a year later, there's no long-term deal with China.

SHERLOCK: They've committed, according to what we've been told, to 25 million metric tons for the next three years. But as a U.S. farmer, we would like to see that in writing, and we would like to see some sort of enforcement mechanism.

SIEGLER: Twenty-five million metric tons is actually less than what China bought from American farmers before Trump launched his latest trade war. In 2022, it was 30 million metric tons. Before Trump's first term, it was 36 million metric tons. All of this has people in farm states questioning what the point of all of this even was.

Joe Vaclavik is a former Chicago trade board analyst who hosts the closely followed podcast "Standard Grain." He's been skeptical that a solid deal will come out of this summit.

JOE VACLAVIK: Is China really going to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans next year, despite the fact that Brazil's got more than ever to export? Chinese demand maybe falling off a little bit. I don't know. It's a hot topic and a good question.

SIEGLER: A hot topic and stressful time for farmers like Justin Sherlock. He'd rather be talking about what he's putting in the ground this spring, not geopolitics.

SHERLOCK: I think most American farmers right now will tell you that we have to have faith that he gets us a deal because kind of the only thing we've got left is hope right now.

SIEGLER: Hope that any trade deal with China includes a firm commitment to buy a lot of soybeans. Kirk Siegler, NPR News, Fargo, North Dakota.

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