A few years ago, Tucker Carlson was sleeping peacefully alongside his wife and four dogs when, all of a sudden, he was “physically mauled” by a demon. This supernatural attack left bloody claw marks on his side, the former Fox News star claimed in a documentary about spirituality. Shaken by this unusual ordeal, Carlson called an evangelical friend who told him: “Yeah, that happens – people are attacked in their bed by demons.” The whole thing, he said, was a “transformative experience”.

Fast forward to the present day and poor old Carlson seems to be plagued by demons again, although this time they’re more metaphorical than metaphysical. The far-right personality, who started his own media company after parting ways with Fox in 2023, has said that he is “tormented” by his previous support for Donald Trump. In a recent episode of his podcast, Carlson spoke to his brother, Buckley, a former Trump speechwriter, about their shared disappointment with the president and said he was “sorry for misleading people”. This was a moment, Carlson said, “to wrestle with our own consciences”.

I don’t know how genuine this mea culpa is, but it’s the most recent example of the growing fractures within the Maga movement. While Carlson privately admitted he hated Trump in text messages that surfaced during the 2023 lawsuit between Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems, he has stood by him in public, drumming up support for the Maga agenda at rallies. He has been one of the president’s biggest supporters for a decade. And while that support has waned during Trump’s second term, largely driven by Carlson’s criticism of Israel and the Iran war, this public denunciation of the president feels like a pivotal moment.

Here’s the thing about Carlson: he has lots of odious views, but, unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of ignoring him. He’s not a fringe figure: he knows how to work the attention economy. He had the highest-rated show on Fox before his abrupt departure and his YouTube channel has more than 5 million followers. And now, it seems, he has broader ambitions. Prediction markets and numerous analysts, including the New Yorker writer Jason Zengerle, who has written a new biography of Carlson, think the former Fox host may be gearing up for a bigger political project.

“I don’t really think of [Carlson] as a media figure any more. I think he’s doing something very different. He’s a movement leader,” Zengerle told Poynter recently. “I think [the Iran war] sets up Tucker, especially if the war goes badly, really well to run for president in ’28. He can hang that war around JD Vance’s neck, around Marco Rubio’s neck … And he can say: ‘I was against this from the start. I’m the true heir for Maga.’”

Scott Galloway, a co-host of the Pivot podcast, also thinks that’s what this recent Tucker redemption tour is about: less a road-to-Damascus moment and more a route-to-the-White-House moment. “I think I absolutely know what’s going on here,” Galloway said on a podcast last week about Carlson’s public apology for supporting Trump. “He’s running for president … I think here and now Tucker Carlson is the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028. Put him on stage with Rubio and Vance, he’s going to slice and dice them.”

Carlson, for his part, has been coy about his political ambitions. He dismissed the idea that he might be interested in becoming the Republican presidential nominee during an interview with the Economist last month. Around the same time, Carlson told Piers Morgan that he wasn’t sure he was interested in the presidency because he thinks politics is “disgusting” and “coalition-building” doesn’t come naturally to him.

But despite these protests, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t thinking about it. Trump’s brand is becoming toxic and, come the next election, Vance and Rubio will probably be damaged goods. Vance has been carefully trying to distance himself from the Iran war, but without a speedy resolution it will become an albatross around his neck.

It also won’t help that the ugliest provisions of Trump’s “big beautiful bill” will kick in in 2027, serving up tax cuts for the rich and taking essential services away from poor Americans. People are worried about the cost of living now, but it’s about to get much worse. Carlson will have the perfect opening to break from Maga and market his own brand of rightwing populism to an increasingly disillusioned US. Forget Carlson’s mysterious demons – US politics is a never-ending nightmare.

Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist