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Variance Reduction for Expectations with Diffusion Teachers Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification The General Theory of Localization Methods CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support Symmetrization of Loss Functions for Robust Training of Neural Networks in the Presence of Noisy Labels Tail Annealing for Heavy-Tailed Flow Matching Variance-Reduced Manifold Sampling via Polynomial-Maximization Density Estimation Latent Laplace Diffusion for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions Reducing Diffusion Model Memorization with Higher Order Langevin Dynamics Provably Data-driven Lagrangian Relaxation for Mixed Integer Linear Programming Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? 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Complete version Beyond Augmented-Action Surrogates for Multi-Expert Learning-to-Defer Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecast using MMAF-guided learning The Implicit Curriculum: Learning Dynamics in RL with Verifiable Rewards Probabilistic NDVI Forecasting from Sparse Satellite Time Series and Weather Covariates Constrained Policy Optimization with Cantelli-Bounded Value-at-Risk Feature Learning Dynamics in Infinite-Depth Neural Networks Statistically-Guided Meta-Learning for Cross-Deployment Activity Recognition in Distributed Fiber-Optic Sensing DAPS++: Rethinking Diffusion Inverse Problems with Decoupled Posterior Annealing Branching Flows: Discrete, Continuous, and Manifold Flow Matching with Splits and Deletions Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State Spaces: Theory, Methods, and Application to Suicide Risk Modeling BOOST: A Data-Driven Framework for the Automated Joint Selection of Kernel and Acquisition Functions in Bayesian Optimization Random Walk Learning and the Pac-Man Attack Random Matrix Theory for Deep Learning: Beyond Eigenvalues of Linear Models Post-Training Augmentation Invariance Optimizing LLM Inference: Fluid-Guided Online Scheduling with Memory Constraints Program Evaluation with Remotely Sensed Outcomes Dataset-Driven Channel Masks in Transformers for Multivariate Time Series
Crossing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Boundary: Exact Tails, Sharp Bounds, and Broken Pivots
Elvis Han Cui, Yihao Li, Zhuang Liu · 2025-02-28 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic is usually introduced as a supremum, but its finite-sample behavior is governed by a more local question: where does the empirical process first cross a boundary? This letter gives a partial answer through a finite-sample crossing ledger. The ledger rewrites the Smirnov- Birnbaum-Tingey one-sample formula as an explicit hitting-time law and yields a stable log-scale tail evaluator. For two samples, it gives one-wall and two-wall exact lattice recursions for arbitrary sample sizes, with the balanced reflection formula appearing as a special closed form. The same viewpoint explains the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-Massart inequality as an exponential compression of exact crossing sums and shows where exact distribution-free counting stops: under a composite null, fitted parameters change the path itself. Simulations and two small data diagnostics illustrate the resulting calibration warning.