MLB Best Home Run Bets

Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Pete Alonso isn’t off to the fastest start to his tenure with the Orioles. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old first baseman has whacked five home runs in 32 games and 138 plate appearances this year, with a 13.0-degree launch angle, a career-high 94.8 mph average exit velocity, a 14.1% line-drive rate, a 40.0% fly-ball rate and a 14.7% home run per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate.

Alonso’s batted-ball data is stellar. Among 272 qualified hitters, Alonso is tied for 126th in barrels per plate appearance rate (5.8%), 115th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (9.4%), tied for 13th in hard-hit rate (55.3%), tied for 28th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.9 mph) and tied for 192nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (30.6%). Alonso is still hitting the ball quite hard, but he hasn’t done his best work with barreling the ball and finding the sweet spot for his launch angle.

Since 2024, Alonso’s 77 home runs were the seventh most in MLB. He might be finding his homer form lately. Alonso drilled a home run last night, and he’s hit two homers in his last four games.

The slugging first baseman has a decent matchup and outstanding park factors to hit a home run this afternoon. Ryan Weathers has yielded five home runs at 1.34 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in six starts this year. The lefty surrendered four of his five home runs in one start, which was at his homer-friendly home ballpark.

Yankee Stadium’s 116 park factor for home runs since 2025 is the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Alonso is equipped with the power to take advantage of his matchup and the dreamy hitting conditions for homers at Yankee Stadium. He should launch a home run today.

Nick Kurtz (Athletics - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+205) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nick Kurtz’s +205 odds to hit a home run at FanDuel Sportsbook are shorter than I’d typically prefer to tout for a home run bet. Still, the positives for Kurtz’s home run prop warrant taking the short odds.

Among 272 qualified hitters this year, Kurtz is 39th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.0%), tied for ninth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (20.3%), sixth in hard-hit rate (59.4%), sixth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (99.6 mph), 10th in maximum exit velocity (115.9 mph) and 19th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.2%). Kurtz is a genuine Stacast whiz.

Sadly, Kurtz’s scintillating batted-ball data has resulted in only five home runs in 31 games and 144 plate appearances in 2026. He opened the year without a home run in his first 13 games and 59 plate appearances. Kurtz has smashed all five of his home runs in 18 games and 85 plate appearances since his drought to open the year.

The left-handed-hitting first baseman is a monster with the platoon advantage. He’s hit 32 of 41 career home runs in 430 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Righty Slade Cecconi is a favorable matchup for Kurtz today. Cecconi has allowed the fifth-most home runs per nine innings (1.78 HR/9) among today’s probable starting pitchers. Cecconi has allowed 16 home runs at 1.72 HR/9 to 346 plate appearances against lefties since 2025.

Cleveland’s bullpen is also a plus matchup for Kurtz. Cleveland’s relievers are tied for the eighth-most home runs per nine innings (1.22) allowed this season.

Finally, Kurtz will benefit from hitting at home. Sutter Health Park’s 115 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the sixth-highest mark in MLB during that period. Again, Kurtz’s +205 odds are chalky, but his home run bet is still an enticing home run prop to wager on today.