Lilia Sebouai Global Health Security Reporter

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president, used his first visit to Britain this week to pitch his vision for rebuilding his country after 14 years of war.

After meeting Sir Keir Starmer at Downing Street on Tuesday, he told a packed room at the Chatham House think tank that he aimed to “transform Syria into an economic destination”, turning its strategic location at the eastern end of the Mediterranean into a new gateway to the Middle East.

The scale of the challenge is not lost on Syria’s president. Its economy, he says, needs support, its cities and infrastructure need rebuilding, and the hundreds of thousands of people who fled the war need to return home.

His appearance in London came after his government unveiled its highly anticipated plan for rebuilding.

Syria’s president is confident, but experts say the task before him amounts to one of the most complex reconstruction projects in history.

While entire cities lie in ruins, sectarian and ethnic divisions have also shattered social cohesion.

Rebuilding is not just a matter of reconstruction, but of healing these divisions, experts warn. Failing to do so could have dire consequences for the country, they say.

What is al-Sharaa’s plan?

The recovery plan, published by the ministry of foreign affairs late last month, is built on what the government describes as four “interconnected pillars”.

The top priority is rebuilding Syria’s battered infrastructure to create a foundation for recovery. That means restoring the energy grid, which now produces less than a fifth of its pre-war output, improving water security and sanitation, and reconnecting the country’s transport network by rebuilding roads, bridges, ports, airports and railways.

It also means clearing the unexploded ordnance that still litters much of the country, which poses a threat to an estimated 15 million people and has killed nearly 1,800 since the fall of the regime, according to the Halo Trust.

Next, basic services such as education and health need to be restored and brought back under the control of the central government – all over Syria, independent local councils, foreign NGOs and other groups have sprung up to meet the needs of the population.

The government wants to build a functioning national system by repairing damaged hospitals and clinics, securing medical supply chains, and improving the training and efficiency of doctors and nurses – an exodus of skilled professionals has hit the health sector particularly hard, leaving hospitals and clinics critically understaffed.

It also aims to expand access to basic services such as routine check-ups, vaccinations and mental health support.

Humanitarian groups will still be permitted to operate, but only with “full government oversight” and they will be required to “align with the national plan”, the report said.

The government also believes rebuilding trust in the rule of law is essential for encouraging refugees to return and businesses to invest, and a section of the plan outlines aims that include repairing courthouses, train more judges, and make legal processes faster and more accessible.

The third pillar outlined by the government is building social and economic resilience to reduce the country’s reliance on aid. It plans to do this by rebuilding homes (a third of Syria’s houses currently lie in ruins), creating jobs across farming, industry and the services sector, reopening factories and supporting local businesses.

Restoring Syria’s “breadbasket” is a key goal, and modernising farming practices and repairing irrigation systems will also help to strengthen climate resilience, the report says.

The final pillar arguably underpins the entire plan. It focuses on a digital transformation of the cash-based war economy by reforming banks, creating reliable social protection registries, and enforcing fiscal discipline.

Without strong institutions, the government believes even basic projects such as repairing power lines or rebuilding schools could fail.

How much will it cost and where will the money come from?

Estimates for the total cost of rebuilding Syria vary wildly, but they are all more than the government can afford.

The World Bank estimates that physical reconstruction work alone will cost at least $216bn (£163bn) – many times larger than Syria’s GDP – and some Syrian officials have put the total cost for rebuilding at $1tn.

To make up the shortfall, Mr al-Sharaa has been on a global charm offensive, courting backers for his reconstruction project.

Before visiting Britain this week, the Syrian president was in Germany to meet its chancellor, Friedrich Merz. He has also visited Washington and travelled extensively in the Gulf states and Turkey.

Turkey and Qatar have emerged as the main backers of efforts to restore Syria’s electrical grid. So-called “power ships” – floating generators – provided by the two countries already supply electricity to coastal cities and Damascus.

But Doha has also committed around $11bn to rebuild and upgrade energy infrastructure, such as high-voltage transmission lines, and to cover the cost of fuelling new power plants for the first few years after they become operational.

Neighbouring Turkey has signed a $7bn deal to stabilise the grid, including the construction of large gas plants, a 1,000MW solar project, and a Turkey-Syria pipeline expected to deliver around two billion cubic metres of natural gas annually.

Saudi Arabia has announced a major investment package worth $6.4bn, including funds for the construction of two new airports in Aleppo, a new airline designed to reconnect Damascus with the Gulf, and a billion-dollar telecommunications project designed to connect the country with Europe and Asia.

Riyadh has also invested into Marota City, a futuristic, high-end development in Damascus featuring glass-fronted Dubai-style high-rises and luxury shopping centres, and has signed a memorandum of agreement to build a water desalination plant.

Alongside the lifting of US and European Union sanctions, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also paid off Syria’s $15.5m debt to the World Bank, opening new lines of credit for Damascus.

But the government is also trying to rebuild its own revenue streams.

In January, the state regained control of the country’s largest oil field, al-Omar, along with key gas plants in the northeast, for the first time in more than a decade.

Money generated by this oil field, which currently produces around 5,000-9,000 barrels a day (a fraction of the pre-war production of 50,000 barrels), will help finance the $3bn Infrastructure Support Fund announced by Mr al-Sharaa last month.

The fund was set up to “rehabilitate infrastructure in devastated areas” hardest hit by the war, including rural Idlib, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and Eastern Ghouta, and focuses on restoring roads, small bridges and neighbourhood water-pumping stations, to help facilitate the return of refugees to their communities.

Will it work?

Despite the funding it has already secured, Syria remains desperately short of cash, and the success of its rebuilding programme is far from guaranteed.

One of the biggest challenges will be ensuring the vast numbers of reconstruction projects remain guided by a coherent national vision, said Mauricio Vazquez, head of policy at ODI Global’s risks and resilience programme.

The issue of whether to prioritise water, energy, or food security projects, which often depend on the same resources is particularly sensitive, Mr Vazquez told The Telegraph.

“The most important thing is not to have a piecemeal approach – agriculture projects that don’t talk to water policy, or energy investments that undermine other sectors,” he said.

Syria’s government must therefore perform a careful balancing act – and there are numerous pitfalls.

Rushing to restore old thermal power plants or expanding irrigation to boost agriculture could backfire by draining the last of the country’s dangerously low aquifers, Mr Vazquez said.

But the rebuilding project also has to stitch Syria’s social fabric back together, and there are real risks that regional inequalities that have fuelled unrest in the past could be exacerbated.

For example, while Saudi Arabia is pouring money into creating luxury developments and 5G networks in the capital, some rural areas are still struggling with a lack of basic water infrastructure.

“If rebuilding creates clear winners and losers, it risks reinforcing the same grievances that existed before the conflict,” said Mr Vazquez.

Mr al-Sharaa has also pressed ahead with the return of Syrians who fled abroad during the war.

More than 1.5 million people have returned home – including 200,000 from Lebanon in March alone – according to the UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR.

But their arrival is piling pressure on the country’s crumbling services, particularly the availability of housing, and their reintegration will require a degree of social cohesion Syria has not experienced in decades.

Yue Cao, a global risks and resilience researcher at ODI Global, said it was possible Syria’s government was moving too fast.

“They are moving really fast in everything they’re doing,” he told The Telegraph. “They are trying to do the right thing, but the infrastructure simply isn’t there yet.”

On top of all this, Syria’s reconstruction is getting under way amid a major war between the US, Israel and Iran that has spilt out across the Middle East.

For now, Syria has not been drawn into the conflict – something Mr al-Sharaa is keen to avoid.

But it nevertheless poses a threat to his reconstruction project, pushing up the prices of building materials, fertiliser, oil and gas, and piling pressure on some of his major backers.

“We had enough war. We paid a large bill. We are not ready for another war experience,” he said. “Those who have been in war know the value of peace.”

After answering a few more questions from the crowd, Mr al-Sharaa left to return to Syria, where he has work to do.

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