That’s all for today...
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Thank you for following our coverage of another eventful day for markets, which ended with a sharp fall in oil prices.
Will it last? We’ll be back tomorrow with the latest.
In the meantime, keep an eye on our live blog on the Middle East here.
UK stocks close lower
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UK equities ended Thursday slightly down, with trading concluding just as the news broke of imminent peace talks between Israel and Lebanon.
The FTSE 100 was down by 0.1pc by the end of the day. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 took a bigger knock, closing 1pc lower.
However, oil prices plunged just after UK equities ceased trading amid renewed optimism about the ceasefire in the Middle East.
Brent crude fell to lows of $95.5 a barrel, having climbed steadily closer to $100 earlier.
The news of talks between Israel and Lebanon also boosted US stocks, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 0.4pc and the Nasdaq 0.6pc.
Oil price plunges after Israel agrees to talks with Lebanon
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The Brent crude price has fallen sharply to lows of $96.8 per barrel, after it emerged that Israel has agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon.
It has been within touching distance of $100 earlier in the day.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that peace talks with Lebanon will start “as soon as possible”.
The negotiations will also cover the disarming of Hezbollah.
Netanyahu said in a statement: “In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to start direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible.”
“The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon.”
Equity markets also surged in response to the news, with the blue-chip SP 500 index gaining 0.3pc. The Nasdaq rose as much as 0.4pc.
UK borrowing costs rise at fastest pace in G7 in blow to Reeves
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The UK’s borrowing costs are rising at the fastest rate in the G7, as the ceasefire in Iran looks increasingly fragile.
Investors nervous about the inflationary impacts of the war in Iran are demanding a bigger premium to lend to the British government than its peers.
The yield on 10-year gilts rose by as much 0.12 percentage points on Thursday, the fastest of any G7 country.
The interest rate the British Government pays investors on 10-year bonds is currently hovering around 4.8pc, after coming within touching distance of 5pc in recent weeks.
It comes after the news of a ceasefire sharply lowered borrowing costs on Wednesday, before doubts about the truce took hold.
The rebound is another blow for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who delivered her Spring Statement just as the war in Iran broke out.
At the time, the 10-year yield was as low as 4.2pc, helping to bolster the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
If the war in Iran drags out, Ms Reeves faces another difficult Budget in autumn.
The UK’s nearly £3tn mountain of debt makes even small rises in bond yields costly for the Chancellor, with the public debt equal to 93pc of the economy.
US markets fall upon opening
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American equities have fallen upon opening, as nervous traders monitor the situation in the Middle East.
The SP500 edged lower by 0.1pc, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 0.2pc. The Dow meanwhile slumped by 0.1pc.
The hesitant mood marks the latest turn after weeks of markets see-sawing amid Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
It comes as optimism over a ceasefire is fading, after Israel threatened fresh attacks on Lebanon.
Strait of Hormuz ‘not open’, says Abu Dhabi oil chief
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The Strait of Hormuz is “not open” and Iran has “weaponised this vital waterway”, the Abu Dhabi’s oil chief has said.
Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE’s industry minister and chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil company, said in a post on LinkedIn: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
He added: “The strait must be open - fully, unconditionally and without restriction. Energy security and global economic stability depend on it. The weaponisation of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand.
“This would set a dangerous precedent for the world – undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy.”
The UAE official also called for Iran to pay reparations for damage to Emirati infrastructure.
“Iran must be held accountable and fully liable for damages and reparations,” he said.
US economic growth slowed at end of 2025
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American economic growth was even slower than previously thought at the end of 2025 as officials downgraded their estimates and revealed that jobless claims climbed ahead of expectations.
The US economy grew at around 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is down from an estimate of 0.7pc, itself a downgrade of an earlier figure of 1.4pc.
The reduced 0.5pc growth estimate compares to a 4.4pc increase in the third quarter of 2025.
Officials said grow was tempered by decreases in overseas trade and government spending. The final data has been delayed by the US government shutdown last autumn.
Meanwhile, US’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, was up 0.4pc from January to February - and up 3pc on a year earlier.
Jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending 4 April.
British Airways to cut Middle East routes when flights return
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British Airways will reduce its flights to key hubs across the Middle East when services to the region resume, diverting planes to airports in India and Africa.
The UK flag carrier confirmed it would cut flights to Dubai from three to one from 1 July. Its routes to Doha, Riyadh and Tel Aviv will all be reduced from two to one.
BA added flights to Bahrain and Amman would be paused until 25 October, while services to Jeddah, in Saudi Arabia, would be permanently suspended.
Flights to Larnaca, in Cyprus, will resume from May 22.
A BA spokesman said: “Due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East, we have made further changes to our flying schedule to provide greater clarity for our customers.
“We’re keeping the situation under constant review and are directly in touch with affected customers to offer them a range of options.
“Since the disruption began, we’ve helped thousands of customers return home, operated relief flights, and added additional capacity on key long‑haul routes. We will continue to assess and introduce further flying where possible.”
Instead, BA said it would be re-routing its larger 787 aircraft to Dehli and Hyderabad. It will be putting on additional flights to Bangalore, Nairobi and Mumbai across the summer.
Tanker insurance premiums remain high despite ceasefire
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The cost of insuring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated despite Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal, raising costs for carriers seeking to traverse the passage.
James Kellett, chief executive of ship-broking data business Spot Ship, said insurance rates for the region had only dropped around a third since the truce.
“We’ve only seen war hull insurance rates for a Hormuz passage decrease around 30pc since the ceasefire,” he said. “Rates are still about 10 times any other global risk zone.”
He said underwriters currently “do not believe the risk to transit has decreased that much”, despite Mr Trump’s truce, and added that the so-called “Tehran toll booth” could soon be seen as part of the “cost of doing business” for ship owners.
Shipping analyst firm Windward, meanwhile, said “conflicting reports” of tolls and “potential sanctions risks” were keeping “many Western shipowners sidelined”.
— Windward (@WindwardAI) April 9, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic remains effectively paused following the ceasefire. Outbound transits remain minimal, including a bulk carrier, a small product tanker, and a sanctioned LPG carrier that exited today, after turning around during yesterday's uncertainty.
Operational… pic.twitter.com/dXrWO0GKjU
Oil nears $100 as Iran insists Hormuz is safe
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Oil prices are edging towards $100 again, wiping out much of Wednesday’s falls when prices for Brent crude dropped as low as $91.
Prices had pushed above $98.50 as of midday. And despite reassurances from Iranian officials that the waters are open to shipping traffic, several tankers came to a halt or turned back on Thursday.
Speaking to ITV News, Saeed Khatibzadeh, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said: “The Strait of Hormuz is open.”
He added there were “technical restraints” that were slowing down shipments and that all ships passing through “have to communicate with our army.
“This Strait is a very narrow strait. We have to be very careful for the safety and security of the tankers and the vessels - whoever communicates, we provide safe passage.”
The remarks conflicted with earlier claims from Iranian media, which alleged the strait was closed again. The White House labelled those reports as “false”.
However, shipping data shows vessels were continuing to halt or turn back. According to Oilprice.com, two Chinese flagged vessels carrying Iraqi and Saudi crude approached the chokepoint on Thursday morning, before coming to anchor and remaining in place.
Goldman Sachs: Oil to stay above $100 if Hormuz not unlocked
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The price of a barrel of oil will stay locked above $100 through to the end of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, analysts at Goldman Sachs have said.
While the analysts cut their estimates for oil prices for the coming months to $90-a-barrel for Brent crude, the note warned that prices would not settle if the key waterway remained unusable.
Under the bank’s base-case, supplies through the strait will pick up over the coming days before returning to pre-war levels. In this scenario, oil will return to about $80 per barrel by the end of the year.
However, if the passage remains closed for more than a month, oil could spiral as high as $120 within six months.
“The situation remains fluid,” Goldman analyst Daan Struyven wrote. “Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, we nudge down our Q2 forecast.”
Traders know better than to trust what ‘Taco’ Trump says
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According to Anthony Scaramucci, briefly a White House communications director in Donald Trump’s first presidency, the US president should be taken seriously but not literally.
As is now obvious, he should not be taken either seriously or literally.
One of the things that has supported stock markets and helped mitigate the rise in oil prices through the recent escalation in hostilities was the belief that when push came to shove, the US president would not go through with his apocalyptic, civilisation-destroying threats.
This has again proved to be the right call. The “Taco” trade – as in, Trump always chickens out – is alive and well and has once more demonstrated its worth.
But it takes two to Taco and there is still plainly plenty of scope for things to go wrong.
Stocks fall and borrowing costs rise as ceasefire jitters dominate
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The FTSE 100 has erased its earlier gains and UK borrowing costs have edged up as caution over the stability of the ceasefire in the Middle East dominates markets.
The UK’s blue chip index is down 0.3pc so far today at 10,575, wiping out a jump earlier this morning. The FTSE 250 is now trading down about 1.1pc.
Meanwhile, UK borrowing costs have nudged up after a sharp fall yesterday on the US ceasefire agreement with Iran.
10-year gilts were at about 4.77pc, climbing about 6 basis points since the start of the session.
They are still some way off highs earlier this week - of about 4.95 - when Donald Trump was threatening to wipe out Iranian “civilisation”, but are now moving in the wrong direction for Rachel Reeves.
US futures, meanwhile, are showing down across the board. S&P500 futures are off 0.33pc and Dow Futures are down 0.35pc.
‘Worst case scenario’ for shipping as Iran says it has mined strait
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Iran’s claim that it has mined the Strait of Hormuz is a “worst case scenario” for shipping companies looking to get their vessels out of the choke point, marine analysts have said.
According to charts published on Tehran-linked social media accounts, Iran has placed mines in a large area at the centre of the waterway, forcing vessels to travel close to the Iranian coastline.
“Due to the past war situation and possible anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the Strait of Hormuz, all vessels are advised to coordinate with the IRGC Navy and use alternative routes until further notice,” said Tehran’s consulate in India.
Analysts said it was not clear if these posts were propaganda intended maintain control of the strait, but they would still force shipping companies to rethink their plans.
“Arguably this is the worst case scenario for shipping,” said Martin Kelly, of EOS Risk Group, in a post on X. “Four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Day 1 of the ceasefire. Just four. No gas carriers. No oil carriers. Four dry cargo. Most of which engaged in Iranian trade.”
Marko Kolanovic, a former strategist at JP Morgan, said the new shipping route would force vessels to stay close to Iran’s coastline - and in range of its conventional weapons.
This is interesting (escalation): they are telling that the main corridor is mined. Then redirect the traffic so close to their land (< 5km) where ships would be within range of literally any weapon (light artillery) pic.twitter.com/8mbKf2GJW8
— Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) April 9, 2026
Strait of Hormuz ‘like a ghost town’
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The Strait of Hormuz is “like a ghost town” as shipping companies hold off from risking the crucial waterway.
Just a handful of ships have braved the strait since Donald Trump and Iran agreed a ceasefire and most tankers remain stuck in ports across the region, shipping data shows.
“The last 24 hours of traffic have been like a ghost town,” said analyst firm HFI Research in a post on X.
The blockage is expected to continue for some time, while any companies that do navigate the passage are likely to do so only to escape the Gulf and take their ships elsewhere, according to shipping experts.
Peter Sand, a container shipping analyst at logistics specialist Xeneta, told my colleague Christopher Jasper that most companies would be focused on getting their assets out of the conflict zone.
“Everybody is assessing the risk according to their own guidance but as the ceasefire is specifically stating two weeks, nobody is planning a full return,” he said.
Diesel tops 190p as oil keeps rising
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Diesel prices at the pump have risen above 190p-a-litre as the oil shock filters through to consumers.
Unleaded hit 157.71p on average, according to the RAC, while diesel is now at 190.62p. Motorway services were charging more than £2 per litre for diesel.
Oil prices continued to edge higher on Thursday morning, with Brent crude at $97.50 as jitters across the Gulf raised doubts over the durability of Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club, said: “Oil prices have risen, reflecting the highly cautious sentiment, with Brent crude back above $97 a barrel.
“The conflict is already piling on financial pain for consumers, especially motorists. Diesel has jumped above £1.90 a litre – a rise of around 50p a litre in some areas of the UK since the outbreak of the war. Petrol is also up by around 30p a litre.
“If the ceasefire holds, prices should start to come down a little, but given how fragile the situation is, we are likely to see volatility for weeks, if not months.”
FTSE 100 opens higher amid ceasefire unease
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The FTSE 100 edged higher in early trading on Thursday as markets dissected reports of breaches of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
The blue-chip index was up about 0.2pc in the opening trades. The index was led by rises to sales group DCC while BP recouped some of yesterday’s losses, up about 2pc. Power and energy groups dominated the price rises as oil edged higher overnight.
The FTSE 250 was down 0.5pc as trading began, dragged down by drops in Ceres Power, Playtech and ITV.
Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The FTSE 100 has continued yesterday’s momentum, opening marginally higher this morning despite little in the way of major stock results. This is the relative calm before the storm, as first-quarter earnings season is set to kick off next week.”
Just two City floats to start 2026
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There were just two UK stock market listings in the first three months of 2026 as volatility and the Iran war disrupted potential deals.
The two deals raised a mere £12.2m between them, according to EY-Parthenon, a sharp decline from the end of 2025.
A sell-off of major software business over fears their technology could be made obsolete by new AI tools prompted a delay for the proposed blockbuster float of Visma.
The Telegraph, meanwhile, reported last year that Waves, an Israeli technology business, had cancelled a planned £300m float in London.
A series of mega-IPOs are planned in the US for later this year, with dealmakers hoping the boom would lift activity in the UK.
Globally, 232 companies went public in the first three months of the year, raising more than $40bn. The number of floats was down 23pc, but the total raised climbed 36pc. Asia had the highest number of new listings, which raised $19.5bn in total.
Scott McCubbin, UK IPO leader at EY-Parthenon, said: “The UK IPO market entered 2026 on the most constructive footing we’ve seen in several years. But two developments in the first quarter have created short‑term uncertainty.
“First, the sell‑off in sectors perceived to be exposed to AI disruption weighed on valuations for technology and software companies. Second, the conflict in the Middle East introduced broader geopolitical instability, raising concerns around inflation and consumer demand.
“While headline market declines have been relatively modest, sector‑level volatility has risen sharply, making near‑term execution more challenging for companies in affected industries.”
FTSE futures edge higher as global rally stalls
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FTSE futures were seen 0.4pc higher ahead of markets opening in the City this morning.
Global markets dipped across the board after Wednesday’s buying spree waned following the US ceasefire deal with Iran.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei was down around 0.7pc and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also traded lower. South Korea’s Kopsi dropped more than 1.8pc.
US futures, meanwhile, were down 0.2pc as the shine came off some of Wednesday’s trades. Yesterday, the S&P 500 climbed more than 2.5pc while the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day since April 2025, climbing 2.8pc.
“Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night,” writes Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid this morning.
“Nevertheless, compared to 24 hours ago, the market stress has eased considerably, as the ceasefire news and hopes for a de-escalation pathway have created a lot more optimism.”
Investors bet $950m on oil hours before ceasefire
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Traders placed a $950m bet on oil prices collapsing just hours before the US and Iranian ceasefire was announced on Tuesday night.
The unusually large bet on 8,600 lots of Brent crude and US oil was sold at 7.45pm on Tuesday, according to data from LSEG, just hours before US President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to wipe out Iranian “civilisation”.
Shortly before his late night ceasefire deadline, Mr Trump confirmed a two-week deal had been reached. Oil prices plunged more than 15pc below $100 overnight on Wednesday.
Tuesday’s trade was extremely large for a single lot, with trades typically spread across the day to hedge bets. It followed a similar move on March 23, when investors sold $500m in oil futures 15 minutes before Mr Trump announced he had delayed an attack on Iranian energy infrastructure, Reuters reported.
Oil jumps as Iran claims strait is shut
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Good morning. Thank you for joining me. Matthew Field here steering the live blog today.
Oil prices have spiked again as doubts emerged over the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Iranian officials claimed the agreement had been violated by Israel and state media insisting the Strait of Hormuz was still shut. JD Vance, meanwhile, last night called the pact a “fragile truce”. Markets in Asia are muted and there will be eyes on whether stocks correct after yesterday’s exuberance.
5 things to start your day
1) Civil servants win battle to work from home | Office for National Statistics loses attempt to force staff to come to office at least two days a week
2) John Lewis hands chairman biggest pay package since 2020 | Boss was paid £1.26m last year as retailer shed 3,300 jobs and made £21m losses
3) Ed Miliband overrules locals to approve Britain’s biggest solar farm | Major development risks changing ‘the very nature of Lincolnshire’, warn nearby residents
4) Anthropic develops AI ‘too dangerous to release to public’ | Start-up will share new model that could ‘reshape cybersecurity’ with other technology giants
5) Why petrol prices won’t return to normal any time soon | A fragile ceasefire and lengthy repairs to damaged energy facilities mean the cost of living will keep rising
What happened overnight
Oil prices reversed some of their losses as Donald Trump’s ceasefire in the Middle East showed signs of major strain.
The price of Brent crude climbed past $97 per barrel last night, up from a low of $90.60 earlier on Wednesday, but still was down 11pc since Tuesday.
Continued attacked in the Gulf were not enough to stop US stocks from surging on hopes that a resolution to the conflict could be near. The S&P 500 rose by 2.5pc while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both jumped by 2.8pc.