As most opinion and exit polls had predicted, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has returned to power after a decade in Kerala, defeating the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in an unprecedented manner, winning 102 seats and bettering its performance of 2001 when it secured 99 out of 140 seats.

“You asked who else was there,” said V.D. Satheesan, the Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Assembly, referring to a CPI(M) campaign in Kerala ahead of the 2026 election. “We answered then [itself] that we are here... Kerala has placed its trust in us. UDF will lead,” he added.

Speaking to mediapersons later, he said that when he took over as Leader of the Opposition he had promised to bring the UDF back to power. “I have been able to keep that promise,” he added.

The Congress wave swept across Kerala and was not restricted to the north and central regions as earlier predicted, meaning that the party also made significant inroads into the Hindu vote base of the LDF and that of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP won three seats, up from zero, a significant gain, but it was not quite the saffron “third force” that most broadcast media had projected. The BJP also lost Thrissur by a huge margin, which seems to indicate again that the victory in the Lok Sabha election was a flash in the pan. Earlier, in December 2025, it had lost most of the local body elections in Thrissur.

Rajeev Chandrasekhar, president of the BJP’s Kerala unit, won the Nemom seat by 4,978 votes, defeating V. Sivankutty of the CPI(M). Former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan won the Kazhakootam seat by a thin margin of 428 votes. He defeated the CPI(M)’s Kadakampally Surendran. The third BJP victory was in Chathanoor, where B.B. Gopakumar won by 4,398 votes, defeating R. Rajendran of the CPI(M). Gopakumar had contested the seat in 2021 and finished second.

Winning by massive majorities is rare in Kerala. But, as results came in, three Congress candidates, Aryadan Shoukath (54,851), Chandy Oommen (52,907), and Uma Thomas (50,211), registered thumping victories. No CPI(M) or CPI candidate came close, indicating the nature of the decade-long anti-incumbency sentiment at play in the State.

As many as six candidates of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) won by margins of over 50,000 votes. Former Minister P.K. Kunhalikutty recorded the largest margin in the State, winning by 85,327 votes from Malappuram.

Adding insult to injury, the CPI (M)’s sitting Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Payyannur, T.I. Madhusoodanan, who had won in 2021 with over 60 per cent of the votes, lost to the Congress-backed Independent V. Kunhikrishnan. The latter, a former CPI(M) member, was allotted the seat in an arrangement that is typically seen in Kerala: that of a rebel candidate being accommodated in an opposition front as an Independent.

With this loss, the rule of the Left parties in the country becomes history. The Left front lost West Bengal in 2011 and Tripura in 2018, and now its last bastion too has fallen.

Past and present

There were 890 candidates in the fray across 140 constituencies. Although a total of 1,254 candidates had submitted their nominations, the papers of 269 were not accepted while 95 candidates withdrew their nominations. Even if the UDF’s performance in the December 2025 local body elections were mapped on to the Assembly constituencies, it would still have won a majority: it had led in 80 Assembly segments and the LDF in 58. But it is a fall from the UDF’s 2024 Lok Sabha performance: if that performance were mapped on to Assembly constituencies, the UDF would have won 110 seats in the Assembly. The UDF won 18 of 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in 2024.

In 1991 the UDF had won 92 seats. But in 2011, infighting and other problems saw the UDF alliance cross the finish line with a thin 72-seat victory.

The LDF’s best was in 2021, when it matched the UDF’s 2001 performance, winning 99 seats. But the critical difference is that the LDF won an unprecedented second consecutive term that year. In 2016, the LDF had won 91 seats. And that is why Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is seen as a rain-maker for the LDF.

The UDF, which won 47 seats in 2016, managed only 41 in 2021. The Congress party’s show in the last two elections was poor—it managed to win only 22 seats in 2016 and 21 in 2021. This needs to be contrasted with the 62 it won in 2001 and the 57 in 1991. Even in 2011, when the UDF formed the government, the Congress had won 38 seats.

IUML in UDF

One of the points that the LDF and the BJP raised in this election was that of the IUML controlling the Congress, and hence the UDF. The IUML forms the second largest contingent of MLAs in the UDF camp. In 2016, for instance, the IUML had 18 MLAs and in 2021, it won 15 seats. In earlier years, the IUML had been a distant second. For instance, in 2006, it won only eight seats when the Congress won 24; and in 1996, the Congress won 37 and the IUML won only 13.

It is in this context that the IUML leadership’s comment on who should be Chief Minister assumes significance. Speaking to mediapersons on April 30, IUML president Panakkad Sayyid Sadik Ali Shihab Thangal had supported V.D. Satheesan as the Chief Ministerial candidate. This was an unprecedented public comment from the leader of a smaller constituent party.

While Satheesan has the IUML’s support, the other contenders include AICC general secretary (Organisation) K.C.Venugopal and former KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala. During an interaction with mediapersons, MP Shashi Tharoor ruled himself out of the race, stating that the position should go to an elected MLA. “I am an MP... I will continue to be that,” he added.

The Congress Legislature Party is expected to meet on May 5 to elect its leader, who will stake claim to form the government. The Congress will also have to deal with several Ministerial aspirants from within the party as well as accommodate the IUML’s demands.

The LDF’s E.K. Nayanar is Kerala’s longest serving Chief Minister: he held the post across three terms for 4,009 days. To break this record, Vijayan had to win this time. He was Chief Minister for 1,821 days in his first term and took over as Chief Minister on May 20, 2021, serving about 1,800 days.

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