Who will win the election for the new West Bengal Legislative Assembly? Perhaps, instead of this, we ought to ask: Who should win in Bengal? Before we delve into this question, we must reflect on why the gaze of Delhi’s analytical circles is so disproportionately fixed upon Bengal. Elections were also held in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry. Yet, the discourse remains obsessively centred on Bengal.

A primary reason for this is that in the southern States, the BJP does not appear to be a credible claimant to power. It participates in elections, and with full force certainly, still it remains a marginal player and has not developed into a serious challenger to the incumbent forces. Consequently, for the Delhi commentators, these States lack “importance”. Add to this the fact that the South continues to exist on the periphery of the North Indian imagination. As for Assam, a consensus seems to have already been reached regarding the outcome; the only curiosity remains whether the BJP will replace the Chief Minister or if Himanta Biswa Sarma will return to the helm.

Bengal is different. It is special because, this time, conquering it has become a matter of prestige for the BJP. The party has exhausted all possible resources to capture Bengal. The Election Commission of India (ECI) and the judiciary are facilitating the removal of every hurdle in its path. Even the administrative officials and security forces deployed from other States exhibit a visible tilt toward the BJP. The moneyed media of Delhi is equally desperate to see the saffron flag flutter over Bengal. In the 2022 election, this media had already declared a BJP victory; the actual results were a rebuke to their desires. This time, they hope the ECI and the entire state machinery will finally deliver what they crave for.

If these elections were being held in an atmosphere of normal parliamentary rivalry, and if there were a normal democratic alternative to the ruling Trinamool, the answer would perhaps not be so contentious. The Trinamool has been in power for fifteen years. Its freshness has gone. The high-handedness of local leaders is rampant; corruption and administrative lethargy are a matter of public discussion. The Trinamool has failed to fulfil the aspirations that brought it to power.

In 2011, the people of Bengal uprooted the Left Front at a time when it seemed invincible. The Left had captured every social institution, and violence had become the primary language of politics. Hubris had consumed the CPI(M). This combination created a desperate urge in the people to rid themselves of the Left at any cost.

Today, the situation feels hauntingly similar. Under normal circumstances, a change in government would be both natural and justified. But Bengal’s misfortune lies in the fact that neither the Congress nor the Left Front is in a position to stand against the Trinamool. Since losing power in 2011, the CPI(M) seems to have lost its will to fight, and the Congress party long ago washed its hands of Bengal. In this vacuum, only the BJP emerges as a viable alternative.

While a BJP victory might seem “natural” in these circumstances, why do people like us insist that it must not happen?

The danger that a BJP victory poses to Bengal has been made manifest by its own campaign. The blatant instrumentalisation of state institutions is a signal that the BJP holds no reverence for parliamentary or constitutional decencies. When such a party gains power, it treats the state’s resources not as public trusts, but as personal fiefdom—behaving much like the monarchs of old.

Furthermore, the BJP’s campaign has explicitly “othered” and demonised the Muslims of Bengal. There was no attempt to win their trust. On the contrary, its leaders repeatedly emphasised that their victory would signal the beginning of “dark days” for the community. Every campaigner employed violent rhetoric to humiliate Muslims, attempting to brand them as “non-Bengali” by tying them to the Urdu language or to Bangladesh. The Prime Minister and the Home Minister repeatedly threatened to expel “infiltrators” one by one. The implication of a BJP victory for the Muslims of Bengal requires no elaboration.

In every State where the BJP has ascended to power, the hate propaganda against Muslims and Christians has intensified, and daily violence against Muslims has become normalised. Odisha is the latest testament to this. Since the BJP formed its first independent government there, reports of daily violence against Muslims have begun to emerge from all corners of the State. Attacks on Muslims on the streets, in buses, trains, and inside homes are becoming routine. The violence against Christians, meanwhile, often fails to even register in the public consciousness.

Lives defined by uncertainty

It is an uncomfortable but undeniable truth: in BJP-ruled States, the lives of Muslims and Christians are defined by precariousness and uncertainty. They face systemic discrimination and violence, knowing full well that the state will never stand by them. This fact alone is reason enough that the BJP should not come to power in Bengal.

To many, this reason seems insufficient. Is the dignity and safety of Muslims so significant that it should preclude a change in government? Those who ask this also desire better education, health, and living standards. Yet, if we look at the data of the last decade, BJP-ruled States lag significantly behind states like Tamil Nadu or Kerala in health, nutrition, and infant mortality rates. Even in terms of ease of doing business, their record is far from stellar.

The quality of education in BJP-ruled States has seen a marked decline. Graduates from their institutions are often viewed with scepticism in the academic and professional world. This proves a vital point: social harmony cannot be sacrificed at the altar of economic prosperity, for the latter cannot survive without the former.

Beyond this, the BJP works with a monarchical mind. They view the people not as citizens with rights, but as subjects with duties towards the king. Thus, it is not merely about the humiliation of Muslims; the Hindu majority, too, loses its agency and sovereignty. The BJP systematically hollows out parliamentary processes, subordinating the police, the administration, and the judiciary to its ideology and not the Constitution of India. In this process, the people are rendered powerless and live on the mercy or pleasure of the monarch.

For these reasons, the BJP cannot be a “better alternative” to the Trinamool. But as these lines are written, the verdict of Bengal has already been cast. It only remains to be seen whether Bengal chooses to follow the path of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, or if it retains its own soul and tries to find its own path.

Apoorvanand teaches Hindi at Delhi University and writes literary and cultural criticism.

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