The Tamil Nadu Assembly election appears set to play out again within the familiar binary of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). However, the entry of actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay and his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), have injected a new intensity into the race, threatening to make the contest more fiercely competitive.

The TVK, widely viewed as a potential spoiler, has generated considerable curiosity and gained an early momentum, but its lack of electoral experience appears to have tempered that initial wave of excitement. This dampening is becoming evident in the two crucial demographic segments the party is banking on: first-time voters in the 18-19 age group and youth aged 30 and below. Although a significant number of voters in both groups harbour deep disenchantment with the Dravidian parties and are drawn to Vijay as an “agent of change”, that attraction has not yet fully translated into sustained political confidence.

There appears to be some ambiguity among these voters about how their desire for “change” is to be realised. Under the two Dravidian parties, Tamil Nadu has, according to several Central government reports, performed relatively well across key socio-economic indicators and in infrastructure development. A section of the new electorate is unsure what to do with these metrics since their political preference is shaped less by data and performance and more by dreams and aspirations.

For these voters, Vijay represents the promise of a transformative landscape, an almost utopian alternative that will mirror the idealistic trajectory of his films. Arjun is a 19-year-old first-time voter from Tiruttani in Tiruvallur district. “I just love Vijay’s films,” he says. “By walking away from a highly successful career that earns him crores, Vijay is choosing to enter public life to serve people like us. He believes change is necessary in politics. That is why we stand by him.”

It is this segment of young voters, a sizeable one, that is expected to disrupt the upcoming election. Much like the Makkal Nala Kootani—the four-party alliance of the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), and the two Left parties formed ahead of the 2016 Assembly election—which fragmented the anti-incumbency vote and ended up helping the AIADMK win, Vijay’s TVK is poised to disrupt the current political landscape. Indeed, signals from the ground show that the new party could indeed play spoiler in a tight race, but the balance might tilt in favour of the DMK this time.

The other party that seems to be hit is Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), whose visibility appears to have diminished. Seeman’s party, which rose from 1.16 per cent in the 2016 Assembly election to 8.2 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, could be looking at an existential crisis as its support base of young and idealistic male voters shifts towards Vijay’s TVK.

The other parties threatened by Vijay are the Dalit-centric VCK and the Vanniyar-dominated PMK. Both parties saw a substantial migration of their youth voters to Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005, and political watchers are not dismissing a repeat this time either.

Vijay eyes AIADMK space

But why does Vijay’s TVK pose a more serious challenge to the AIADMK than to the DMK? There are many factors that indicate this. Since its setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK has been trapped in a cycle of electoral reverses. It suffered defeats in the 2021 Assembly election, the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and in local body elections. This string of losses might contribute to what some observers describe as a lingering “defeat syndrome”.

Compounding the decline has been the prolonged internal power struggle between Edappadi K. Palaniswami and O. Panneerselvam in the post-J. Jayalalithaa era, which has weakened the party’s organisational coherence and eroded its ability to present a unified political front. This is a vulnerability that the TVK’s emergence can exploit, by cutting into the party’s already shaky support base, particularly among younger voters and those seeking an alternative to both Dravidian majors.

The AIADMK has, in many ways, remained adrift since the passing of its charismatic leader Jayalalithaa in 2016. While it still retains a substantial portion of its traditional vote base, it has struggled to expand its appeal, and that will hit the younger voters and first-time voters who might otherwise have followed their families and voted for the party. Besides, the prolonged leadership tussle has left loyal cadres and long-time functionaries fatigued.

Although Palaniswami eventually outmanoeuvred Panneerselvam—a three-time Chief Minister and trusted Jayalalithaa lieutenant—through an intrigue-laden power struggle to emerge as the party’s sole leader, the internal discord has taken a visible toll on the party’s organisational unity. Panneerselvam’s subsequent expulsion marked a decisive rupture, and his subsequent alignment with the DMK has sealed it. He is contesting from Bodinayakkanur constituency in Theni district.

Despite the internal chaos and electoral defeats, the party’s core vote bank of around 27-30 per cent remains largely intact. In the 2021 Assembly election, the AIADMK’s share in valid votes polled was 1,53,91,055, or 33.29 per cent. The DMK’s share was 1,74,30,579, or 37.7 per cent. The total votes polled were 4.23 crore with a turnout percentage of 73.3 per cent. The DMK’s share rose to 47 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, while the AIADMK, while avoiding an alliance with the BJP, saw its percentage dip to 22.6 per cent.

Notwithstanding that, the two Dravidian parties retain between themselves a significant vote share of around 70 per cent, with each holding a strong core vote base. Thus, in the 1991 election, when the DMK suffered a humiliating defeat, it still polled around 29 per cent. And in 1996, when the AIADMK under Jayalalithaa was routed, it retained around 27 per cent of the votes. Hence, neither Dravidian party is a pushover.

DMK’s strategic advantage

In contrast to the AIADMK, not only has the DMK maintained a unified front but it has also ventured into a previously untapped base: the women vote.

Tamil Nadu’s large women vote bank has traditionally been a mainstay for the AIADMK, especially because of Jayalalithaa. Since her death, the DMK has been trying to strategically win women over by implementing a range of pro-women welfare schemes such as the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam (KMUT), which provides Rs. 1,000 per month to beneficiaries, and the free bus for women scheme known as “Vidiyal Payanam”. This strategy might yield results in this election, with women beneficiaries (many of whom, according to Chief Minister M. K. Stalin, had not previously supported the DMK) now tilting towards it. The free bus travel has been especially welcome for women, particularly low-income workers, ensuring their mobility and financial independence.

A report from the Tamil Nadu Planning Commission states that a free bus ride can help women save an average of Rs. 888 a month. This, along with the KMUT payout, allows women to save approximately Rs 22,000 per year, a significant sum for those living below or on the poverty line.

Further, the DMK, which has leant heavily on alliance arithmetic for electoral success, has gradually evolved into a more pan-demographic force, consolidating its presence across diverse social segments. Much of the credit for this strategic shift is attributed to Stalin, whose governance approach and welfare-oriented policies have broadened the party’s appeal, such as the consolidation of women voters.

Vijay’s support base 

Vijay’s call for “change” against the six-decade dominance of the Dravidian parties finds particular resonance among younger voters. There are approximately 14.59 lakh first-time voters in the 18-19 age bracket, 1.07 crore voters in the 20-29 age bracket, and nearly 1.16 crore in the 30-39 age group.

These three segments account for roughly 2.38 crore voters, a substantial share in the total electorate of around 5.73 crore.

Women are another decisive bloc for Vijay as well. They number approximately 2.93 crore compared to 2.80 crore male voters. These demographics underscore the huge potential for Vijay in what has traditionally been a tightly bipolar contest.

Will these demographic blocks vote en masse for Vijay? Political analysts are sceptical. “It is an illusory narrative straightjacketed into the frame of a Vijay starrer. The media glare and celluloid fantasies might not work against established parties who have mastered the art of forming the right alliances, contesting and winning elections. Yes, it looks like a close fight in the field, but cannot translate into reality,” says Professor V. Arasu, socio-political analyst and former Head of the Department of Tamil in the University of Madras.

The AIADMK, after the demise of Jayalalithaa, has not implemented any strategies to retain its existing women’s support base or to attract first-time women voters. As a result, the party has experienced a steady decline in this base. This, Vijay believes, might boost his party’s vote share, which is conservatively estimated at 12 to 15 per cent, although his campaign managers assert it could be as high as 30 to 35 per cent.

According to Arasu, the TVK could potentially siphon off the anti-DMK votes that would have normally gone to the AIADMK. “But the DMK has to be cautious also. The seats it won on thin margins in the last Assembly polls may be lost this time. It needs to re-strategise,” he says. While AIADMK leaders are confident the TVK will not intrude into their voter base, it is evident from the field that a significant percentage of votes going to the TVK could mainly impact the AIADMK.

Prof K. A. Manikumar, a retired Professor of History at Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Tirunelveli, says that Vijay’s cinematic image attracts young women voters, notably college girls. “In Tiruneveli and Thoothukudi districts, he draws the adult women voters of both DMK and AIADMK and a significant portion of the AIADMK male adult votes. Besides this, Vijay is cashing in on first-time youth voters, across castes, decisively.”

Vijay understands the shifting political dynamics within both Dravidian parties. In the absence of a strong and perceptible anti-incumbency sentiment, he has sought to recalibrate the political narrative by positioning the election as a contest between his party and the DMK. This strategic reframing has, to some extent, sidelined the AIADMK, which is the principal opposition force, which further complicates its efforts to reclaim political relevance and power.

Vijay is thus not merely inserting himself into the electoral fray but attempting to redraw its contours. If successful, his strategy could significantly alter vote alignments and weaken the AIADMK’s consolidation. However, for Vijay or any emerging challenger to become a serious contender, securing a minimum of one crore votes would be essential to emerge as a serious player and disrupt Tamil Nadu’s bipartite political landscape.

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