When Prime Minister Narendra Modi stepped onto the back of an orange-coloured pick-up truck in Veppamoodu in Nagercoil in south Tamil Nadu, at 4.30 pm on April 15, it was the first time that the BJP’s main campaigner was on a roadshow in the State to garner votes for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

He had earlier landed in Chennai twice earlier during the election campaign period, on February 28 and on April 3, but had not participated in a roadshow in the State. In fact, he left for nearby Puducherry on April 4 where he helmed a well-attended roadshow the same day. He had also been on roadshows in Kerala ahead of the April 9 election, and in West Bengal. Despite staying overnight in Chennai on both occasions, and meeting with party office bearers, the marquee event of the Prime Minister’s campaign was missing in Tamil Nadu until April 15.

Obviously, this did not go unnoticed. “The Prime Minister stayed in the city during the last visit. The BJP could have easily organised a road show from the airport. It would have helped the party,” “Aspire” Swaminathan, former AIADMK IT Cell secretary, told Frontline in an interview. A similar roadshow was organised when Modi was here for the 2024 Lok Sabha election (in the T. Nagar neighbourhood), and when Union Home Minister Amit Shah was in Chennai ahead of the same election.

Modi’s decision to hold the roadshow in Nagercoil is a sign that the BJP hopes it has a chance in the State’s southernmost district, Kanyakumari. The district will see some interesting fights between the national parties. In Vilavancode, the Congress’ T.T. Praveen faces off with the BJP’s S. Vijayadharini, who has won as a Congress candidate from the constituency thrice. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, unhappy that the Congress had not taken her record into consideration, she moved to the BJP. Praveen is a local good Samaritan, and a fresh face.

There is a history to his choice, which indicates that contrary to expectations, some thought has gone into the selection of candidates by the Congress leadership. After Vijayadharini left the party and resigned as Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) in 2024, the Congress fielded Tharahai Cuthbert, who belongs to the fishing community and is a Roman Catholic, in the seat and she won. Although that election was a mere two years ago, the party has now decided that Praveen, who has the backing of the Church of South India, was a better candidate for the seat. As a result, Tharahai Cuthbert has been moved to Colachel.

The role religion and caste

This is also the part of the State where the politics around Lord Murugan comes in. For more than a year, the BJP had tried to make Lord Murugan an election issue. The BJP hopes that Lord Murugan will give the party a hand in the south, especially after the massive fight it had put up to light the deepam atop the hill at Tiruparankundram near Madurai.

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is part of the NDA, did not part with the Tiruparankundram seat to the BJP, and strangely enough, the BJP did not demand it either. This has led to some heartburn among the cadres at the lower level, who want to know why the party did not insist on the seat after making the lighting of the deepam such a huge political issue. An AIADMK leader made it clear that since the seat was won by the party in 2021, it did not want to give it to the BJP and the saffron party had accepted this stand.

But the question of Lord Murugan helping the NDA appears remote. “Even if Murugan himself wants to help, they [AIADMK] cannot win,” said local Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Thiagarajan. “This is what we call PK (Piramalai Kallar) politics.” (The Piramalai Kallars are a prominent sub-caste of the Kallar community, forming part of the Mukkulathor group in Tamil Nadu.)

He added: “PK are in a majority here. The AIADMK, the TVK [Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam], and V.K. Sasikala’s party have fielded PK candidates. Since the votes will get split, this time the DMK will win.”

The AIADMK has fielded V.V. Rajan Chellappa, who won in 2021. The DMK’s candidate is Krithika Thangapandi, who belongs to the Ambalakkarar caste and has a distinct advantage because of the divide in PK votes and the consolidation of the votes of other castes.

The Vijay factor

Actor Vijay’s TVK has fielded its joint general secretary C.T.R. Nirmal Kumar. In 2021, Rajan Chellappa won by a margin of nearly 30,000 votes. In second place was the CPI(M) candidate, S.K. Ponnuthai. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) candidate had managed to secure 22,000 votes in 2021.

Vijay is a factor in this land too. “There are a total of 168 votes in my extended family,” said a local community volunteer. “In 2021, I ensured that 140 went to the alliance. This time even 100 is difficult because the youngsters want to vote for Vijay’s party. They do not heed to any reasoning. They are unwilling to even indulge in a debate about what the different political parties offer,” he added.

In his opinion, these very youngsters were with the DMK and the AIADMK. However, he insisted that the numbers were not big enough to have the DMK worried.

Of south Tamil Nadu’s 58 seats, the AIADMK had held sway in a considerable number in the Madurai and Theni regions until 2021. This time it is contesting 39 seats and the BJP in 12. The region does not vote as a uniform entity and caste plays a major role in voting decisions. The BJP and the Congress have a prominent presence in Kanyakuamari’s six seats. In the remaining nine districts, DMK-AIADMK battles have dominated across elections. Madurai has the highest number of seats in the region (10), followed by Dindigul and Virudhunagar (seven each).

The presence of five pan-Tamil Nadu leaders in the southern region makes the contest interesting. Of this, three others are contesting; two are not, but their future directly depends on how many of their party candidates make it through.

In the fray and outside of it

The leaders who are not contesting are the DMK’s parliamentary party leader, Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam leader T.T.V. Dhinakaran. There was enough chatter within the DMK that Kanimozhi would contest; and she herself had not denied these rumours. But the party president, M.K. Stalin, who made her in charge of 23 seats in the southern most part of Tamil Nadu, wanted her to ensure the victory of all the candidates.

Dhinakaran has found a new lease of life after the BJP decided to accommodate him in the NDA alliance in the State. Earlier, Dhinakaran had been unsparing in his attacks on AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami. He had stated that he would rather die by suicide than ally with the AIADMK. But the BJP convinced him to join the NDA front. Depending on how his party fares, he could be sent to the Rajya Sabha from a BJP-ruled State. His supporters believe that he would also be made a Minister.

The NDA hopes that Dhinakaran will do enough to turn the tide in its favour among the Mukkulathor votes. This is a huge ask given the fact that all the other notable leaders of the community, such as Sasikala, O. Panneerselvam, and Thanga Tamilselvan, have parted ways with the AIADMK and have either forged their own paths or joined the DMK.

The three leaders who are contesting are BJP State president Nainar Nagendran, former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam, and NTK leader Seeman. Panneerselvam is contesting from Bodinayakkanur for the fourth time. It was a constituency from where Jayalalithaa contested in 1989 and won, and is considered an unbreachable fortress of the AIADMK. But Panneerselvam’s problem is that this time, he is contesting on the “rising sun” symbol, which has been preferred in the constituency only thrice so far. He has the major task of convincing his followers, who have so far been voting for the “two leaves” symbol until now, to vote for the DMK’s symbol.

Nainar Nagendran has shifted from Tirunelveli to Sattur in Virudhunagar district, taking into consideration the caste equations in the constituency. He had contested from his home district, Tirunelveli, five times so far and won thrice. His last victory was in 2021 as a BJP candidate. He had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha election for the BJP from Tirunelveli and lost. This has a bearing on his decision to shift to Sattur, where he is an outsider. The opposition is working on this “outsider” image of Nainar Nagendran, while the BJP leader is convinced that all he needs is the support of people of his caste.

Seeman is contesting from Karaikudi constituency, in Sivaganga district, where his home village is located. In 2016, he contested from Cuddalore, where the Vanniyar community holds sway, and later, in 2021, tried his luck in Tiruvottiyur in north Chennai. Realising that his party has better reach in the south, he is now trying his luck from a southern seat. His party is yet to get a victory in the Assembly election, and this election promises to be no different.

The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which fights for Dalit issues and is part of the DMK front, is testing the waters down south by picking a constituency there, namely Periyakulam. VCK was born as the Dalit Panthers of India and has a traditional vote base in the south. The party had supported Panneerselvam in the 2006 election because it was part of the AIADMK alliance.

Regardless of how the big names fare in the south, this region will make or mar the fortunes of an alliance. The DMK has pinned its hopes on Kanimozhi and its southern leaders, including Ministers K.K.S.S.R. Ramachandran, Thangam Thennarasu, P. Moorthy, Periyakaruppan, and Mano Thangaraj, will hold on to their turf and ensure the victories of the candidates they are in charge of. Palaniswami’s best bet is in the BJP doing well, and the split in votes caused by Vijay’s presence working in his favour.

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