In the last one year, the BJP has expanded its presence in the eastern States of India. West Bengal and Odisha has been added to its tally, and in Bihar, through some deft moves, the party has placed its own leader as Chief Minister. After 2014, the BJP has been in expansionist mode. Western India always had a strong BJP presence from the Jana Sangh days, and Madhya Pradesh too was long a bastion of the party.

In north India, Haryana was the first State to go the BJP way. Punjab still remains outside its hold. Much like the southern States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it is the only State in north India where the party has, so far, failed to achieve any significant electoral success. In the Assembly elections of 2017 and 2022, the BJP won just 3 and 2 seats respectively, out of 117.

Yet the frequent visits to Punjab by several BJP leaders, including the Prime Minister, the Home Minister, and the Chief Minister of Haryana, over the past two months indicate that, while other parties were occupied with Assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, the BJP has already launched its campaign in Punjab. It has done so with a new strategy ahead of the Assembly election scheduled for February next year. Before turning to this strategy, it is essential to understand why the party has, until now, failed in Punjab.

Since 1996, the BJP has contested elections in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal, an alliance that endured for over two decades but collapsed in 2020 amid the farmers’ protests. Because the party contested only 22 or 23 Assembly seats, it lacked a robust organisational structure across the State. Furthermore, Punjab is a Sikh-majority State, whereas the BJP is generally perceived as a party that draws its support primarily from Hindus, and this too kept its sphere of influence limited.

The farmers’ protest, which took place on the borders of Delhi from 2020 to 2021 in opposition to three farm laws, has created difficulties for the BJP in Punjab as well. Since farmers from Punjab constituted the largest contingent within this protest, a narrative spread across the State suggesting that the BJP-led Central government harboured a hostile attitude towards Punjab and its farmers.

Until now, the BJP had largely confined its campaigning to references to the 1984 attack on the Golden Temple and the anti-Sikh riots in Delhi, while generally aligning itself with the electoral manifestos of the Akali Dal. The party had neither advocated the upliftment of any specific community nor promised any dedicated schemes for them. Most importantly, even if the BJP had made such promises, voters would likely not have taken them seriously, primarily because the party lacked a significant mass base across the State. The BJP has now revamped its strategy, the details of which are outlined below.

Ever since defeating the ruling AAP in the Delhi Assembly election last year, the BJP had begun shifting its focus towards Punjab. This victory sparked two hopes within the party: first, that the AAP could be defeated in Punjab as well; and second, that, just as the AAP, led by a non-Sikh and with a support base primarily concentrated in Delhi, had achieved tremendous success in the previous elections, the BJP too could consolidate its support base in Punjab through a robust campaign and welfare-oriented announcements. Driven by this mindset, the BJP launched its campaign a full year ahead of the polls.

The ‘2D’ factor

On February 1, on the occasion of Guru Ravidas Jayanti, Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid his respects at Sachkhand Ballan Dera, Guru Ravidas’s most sacred pilgrimage site, in the village of Ballan near Jalandhar, Punjab, and touched the feet of the Dera’s spiritual head, Sant Niranjan Das. The objective was to influence voters belonging to the Ravidassia community, which, in terms of population, constitutes the largest sub-group among Dalits in Punjab.

Since hundreds of thousands of Ravidassia community members from every corner of Punjab had gathered at this prominent Dera on the occasion, Modi’s message was clear: the BJP respects your saints and is committed to your welfare.

Furthermore, Gurinder Dhillon, the head of the Radha Soami Dera, Beas, another immensely influential spiritual centre in Punjab whose influence extends to every community within the State, has met Prime Minister Modi on several occasions over the past two years. Given his widely known proximity to the BJP and Akali leaders, the BJP is now attempting to win over devotees through the Radha Soami Dera as well.

Meanwhile, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, the head of Dera Sacha Sauda, an organisation based in Sirsa, Haryana, which has deep roots in Punjab’s Malwa region (home to 69 of the 117 Assembly seats) and wields significant electoral influence, is frequently granted bail or parole at critical junctures of the election cycle. This sends a clear message to his devotees: since the BJP government in Haryana has facilitated the release of their Guru, whom followers affectionately address as “Pita Ji” (Father), they ought to vote for the BJP.

The Dera often issues explicit directives on which party its followers should support, and it is frequently hinted that those who fail to vote in accordance with the Guru’s instructions will face adverse consequences, a sentiment particularly evident during the 2024 Haryana Assembly election, thereby altering the electoral landscape overnight. Thus, the BJP is making concerted efforts to win over the three major Deras that exert profound influence over the Punjab electorate; the strategic objective is to expand the party’s support base by leveraging the influence of these religious sects.

In recent years, the BJP has consolidated its political expansion across various States by employing defection as a strategic tool. Assam and West Bengal serve as prime examples, where the BJP paved the way for a shift in power by inducting influential leaders from the opposition, specifically Himanta Biswa Sarma from the Congress and Suvendu Adhikari from the Trinamool Congress, into its fold.

Both leaders were considered extremely close confidants of their respective Chief Ministers and wielded decisive influence at both organisational and electoral levels. Their defection not only eroded the internal strength of the opposition parties but also gave the BJP significant leverage in its quest for State power.

Extending this approach, the BJP has attempted a similar strategy in Punjab. The induction of influential leaders such as former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, former Congress State president Sunil Jakhar, and Ravneet Singh Bittu into the BJP can be viewed as part of this broader process. Moreover, in recent developments, the BJP has shown notable proactiveness in challenging the AAP’s organisational structure within the State by enticing six of its seven Rajya Sabha members from Punjab to join the BJP.

The defection of leaders such as Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak is particularly significant in this context. Chadha has been a key figure in the party’s strategic planning and financial management, while Pathak is regarded as a leader with a strong command over electoral data and organisational management.

According to political analysts, the role these two played in propelling the AAP to power during the 2022 Punjab Assembly election was pivotal; consequently, they were elected to the Rajya Sabha from Punjab later that year. The BJP now appears to be making concerted efforts to consolidate its foothold in Punjab by leveraging the political and organisational capabilities of these leaders.

The 2T factor (the turban and Taranjit Singh Sandhu)

In Punjab, the BJP is attempting to capture the attention of voters through symbolic politics. The most crucial aspect of this strategy is the wearing of a turban during campaigning in the State. Amit Shah recently wore a turban while addressing a public rally. Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini not only wears a turban during his visits to Punjab but has also begun wearing one within Haryana, even inside the Legislative Assembly. Taking a jibe at this, Congress leader and MP Kumari Selja remarked, “Different State, different attire.”

The second “T” refers to Delhi’s newly appointed Lieutenant Governor, Taranjit Singh Sandhu. Sandhu had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha election from the Amritsar constituency on a BJP ticket, but lost to the Congress’ Gurjeet Aujla. By appointing Sandhu, a retired officer of the Indian Foreign Service, the BJP has sought to woo voters in Punjab, particularly those in the Majha region, which comprises Amritsar, Tarn Taran, Pathankot, and Gurdaspur.

Through Sandhu, the BJP has also signalled its intent to assert its control, from Delhi, over the ruling AAP in Punjab. As Lieutenant Governor, he is expected to highlight the failures of previous AAP governments in Delhi, fostering a perception among voters that the AAP has delivered in neither Delhi nor Punjab and is to be portrayed merely as a party of false promises, one that first deceived the voters of Delhi and then those of Punjab. The implication is that, just as the BJP dislodged the AAP from power in Delhi, it is equally capable of doing the same in Punjab.

During their speeches at public rallies across Punjab, Prime Minister Modi and other BJP leaders consistently focus on the Central government’s public welfare schemes, such as the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (free rations), the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, the Ayushman Bharat Yojana, and the Atal Pension Yojana. The objective is to convey a clear message to the State’s ordinary voters: if the BJP wins, it will remain committed to working in the interests of the common people. This time, there is little doubt that, ahead of the elections, the BJP in Punjab is likely to make even more announcements aimed at safeguarding and advancing the State’s interests.

Recently, Punjab Governor Gulab Chand Kataria organised a rally against drug abuse. The presence of the Akali Dal and the head of the Radha Soami Dera at this event, coupled with a palpable shift in the attitude of BJP leaders towards the Akali Dal, indicates that, after a hiatus of six years, the party is once again attempting to join hands with its former alliance partner.

Key challenges facing the BJP in Punjab

The BJP faces several major hurdles in Punjab. The party suffers from a dearth of leaders within the State who genuinely subscribe to its core ideology. Currently, from Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar, Raghav Chadha, and Sandeep Pathak, to Union Cabinet Minister Ravneet Bittu, every leader has joined the BJP after defecting from other parties. Consequently, the party’s electoral fortunes in the State now rest entirely on the shoulders of these turncoat leaders, whose individual mass bases have significantly eroded.

Leaders such as Jakhar, Captain Amarinder Singh, and Bittu have failed to win their own elections; or, to borrow Bhagwant Mann’s phrasing, they have all turned out to be “damp squibs”. Relying on such leaders to establish a firm political foothold in Punjab therefore appears to be an exceedingly difficult task. The Akali Dal is currently striving to regain its lost mass base; under these circumstances, allying with the BJP could prove a highly risky move.

Such an alliance could give rival parties an opportunity to craft a narrative suggesting that the BJP intends to use the Akali Dal to implement its own agenda within the State, thereby posing a threat to Punjab and the spirit of “Punjabiyat”. The Akali Dal is therefore in no position to take any riassk that carries the potential for political detriment.

Only time will tell whether the BJP will wait for the February 2027 Assembly election, or go for Operation Lotus, or use Article 356 to impose President’s Rule and then go for the kill.

Rajendra Sharma is senior professor in Department of Political Science at Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak. Rajesh OP Singh is a PhD candidate in Department of Political Science, University of Delhi.

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