Ending speculations that had lasted several weeks, actor Vijay said at an Iftar gathering on March 18 that the next government in the State would be only under the leadership of his party—Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK)—and it would not play second fiddle to anyone. He added that his party was firm in its commitment to secularism and on no account would swerve from that.

The choice of Iftar was a quiet but clear signal of distance from the BJP, which has been keen to induct Vijay into the National Democratic Alliance. The arithmetic of an AIADMK–TVK alliance, amplified by Narendra Modi’s appeal, suggested a plausible challenge to the entrenched DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA).

The BJP leaders might be cursing themselves for trying to put too much pressure on the star, thus possibly alienating him for good. They raised the usual income-tax bogey; they pushed him around on the Karur stampede tragedy (more than 40 of his fans perished at a roadshow in September last year); and stalled the release of his last film. Some claim the ruling dispensation is even trying to exploit his domestic troubles, as his wife is seeking a divorce. But it all appears to have come a cropper. The 52-year-old Tamil superstar seems determined to go it alone, whatever the costs, literally and figuratively, at least for the moment.

Both the DMK and the AIADMK, whatever their weaknesses and shortfalls, have been in the arena for decades and taken turns in office. Taking them on independently without any alliance and creating a buzz is in itself striking for a party that is barely two years old. So, even if the TVK doesn’t achieve a legislative majority but still emerges as the second or third largest party in the legislature, it would still be a creditable achievement, and the championship cup, as it were, might not be long in coming.

The question is what gives Vijay the courage, the hope, assuming it is all real, and not posturing. How does he hope to succeed where the likes of Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan, or Vijayakanth could not?

Tamil cinema, a fertile ground for politicians

Rajinikanth, for instance, a star who has come to be known across the country though essentially a Tamil film phenomenon, had a good chance of becoming a key political figure in a State where cinema has been a route to power for many decades and for many reasons.

Back in 1996, when the then Chief Minister Jayalalithaa was becoming very unpopular, Rajini (as he is fondly known) was a huge crowd puller, and the Congress tried to inveigle him to join them. The actor did seem inclined to do so for a while, but for reasons never revealed, opted out. In the event, the DMK was the gainer and Jayalalithaa was swept aside in that election.

For a decade and more thereafter, the actor seemed to toy with the idea of taking the plunge but never did. And at one point he closed down all his fan clubs as well, making it clear that he was not in the race anymore. He had spoken then of health issues, but the general impression was that he was hesitant for a range of reasons and did not wish to risk too much.

Kamal Haasan, who styles himself Ulaga Nayagan (World Hero), began to venture out after the death of Jayalalithaa in December 2016. Although his fan base doesn’t match Rajini’s, he has enjoyed an intellectual image of sorts and perhaps hoped it would sell among the middle classes, from where he could go on to build some sort of coalition.

Unlike Rajini, Kamal did take a few concrete steps, launching a full-fledged political party called Makkal Needhi Mayyam. But he failed to make much of an impact, drawing a blank in both the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections (he contested alone both times), with his vote share not exceeding even 3 per cent. His party began to vaporise, and choosing discretion over valour, he managed to work his way into the DMK-led front.

Both Kamal and Rajini sought to test whether in the absence of magnetic figures like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa they could carve out a niche for themselves. While Rajini dragged his feet for personal reasons, Kamal went some distance but failed to make a mark. He did not take firm positions on key issues, apart from his avowed stand on rationalism. He also could not build a proper party machinery.

The late Vijayakanth did much better. He launched Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005 and quickly became someone to reckon with. Of course, he too had no clear ideology of any kind, except to say he would prove to be different from the DMK and the AIADMK. Still, the “karuppu MGR” (dark-skinned, in contrast to MGR’s vaunted fair complexion) did make an impact of sorts, polling an impressive 10-plus percentage votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, which he fought alone.

Two years later, he went on to clinch an alliance with Jayalalithaa, against whom he had inveighed since his party’s inception, and emerged leader of the opposition in the Assembly. However, he lost his way soon, personal quirks proving to be his undoing, and the DMDK was virtually gobbled up by the AIADMK itself. His wife Premalatha kept the show going after his death. Today, the party is part of the DMK-front but is only a pale shadow of itself.

The famous thespian Sivaji Ganesan had a far more limited mass fan base than MGR, but he too tried his luck, first with the Congress and then launching his own political party but failed to click and folded up quickly.

Tamil cinema has long been fertile ground for sprouting politicians. The Tamil nationalist opposition to the Congress drew considerable strength from cinematic discourse, aiding the DMK’s rise and allowing it to become the first non-Congress party to rule the State. MGR, groomed in the party, made it big on his own and outwitted Karunanidhi, who had inherited the mantle after DMK founder C.N. Annadurai’s death. He went on to set up the AIADMK, Tamil Nadu’s second major Dravidian party. After his death, MGR’s long-time screen flame and protégé Jayalalithaa managed to hold on to this constituency and even took it to greater heights. Her successors have fumbled to keep the flame burning.

When established political parties begin to find themselves the target of people’s discontent, it is but natural that the space opens up for a new one. Vijay’s own rise could be following a similar pattern. He had his baptism in cinema at the hands of an eager director, his father S.A. Chandrasekar. Initially, he seemed tentative as an actor, some critics even dismissing him as “wooden”, but Vijay slowly made his way up. In a decade or so, by the 1990s, he began to deliver hit after hit, soon becoming a mass hero with a rapturous fan base. His last film to be released was titled GOAT (Greatest of all Times) and was, appropriately, another blockbuster. The film was released in September 2024, just months after Vijay announced his new party in February that year, both feeding into each other’s triumph.

Vijay’s next and possibly last film, Jananayagan (Democrat), is the one that has been stalled at the censor board stage, and when released, could well be another box-office hit. His cinema has earned him a place in the hearts of his fans and that alone might have laid a firm foundation to his political career, even if his politics are as vacuous as that of others before him. Although, after floating his party, he did condemn the Citizenship Amendment Act, thus positioning himself as a champion of secularism, perhaps his one unequivocal declaration.

A political force

When the Tamil electorate is disillusioned with both the DMK and the AIADMK, with both the Congress and the BJP virtual no-shows and with the two communist parties, the CPM and the CPI, being minor players, and most important of all, with no awe-inspiring figures around, Vijay might have a chance of winning just by default.

Ironically when his father Chandrasekar energetically campaigned for his entry into politics, Vijay would have none of it. In fact, it ended in a humiliating fiasco for the father, who had to reluctantly wind up all the fan clubs he had started. At the time, it was rumoured that it was Vijay’s wife who opposed the idea of her husband entering politics. Later, Vijay fell out with his parents, and when he chose to enter politics, they were kept out of it; with his wife too drifting away.

Interestingly, the actor is said to have been advised not to allow his marital issues to become public, but he reportedly shrugged his shoulders, the way he had when friends tried to mend fences between him and his parents. “I am willing to take it,” has been his stock reply, whether to his father, wife, or the forbidding Modi himself.

Is this arrogance or enormous confidence? It is difficult to discern at this stage.

It is apposite here to note that but for his lively sense of humour, Vijay has nothing much to commend himself as an actor, yet his stature has grown to gigantic proportions. If he could do so on screen despite his all too obvious limitations, why shouldn’t he do so in politics as well? That seems to be the reasoning behind his moves in the last two years.

The Karur stampede sent shockwaves all over. Not even the late MGR, whose fan following was incredible, witnessed large-scale deaths in his rallies; there were odd incidents here and there, but no Karur-type deadly frenzy.

Cinemavukku Pona Sithalu (The woman construction worker who went to the movies), a novel by renowned Tamil writer Jayakanthan, was a withering take on the obsessions of crazy MGR fans. Had the writer been alive, he might have been tempted to write a sequel, but nothing is changed by literature or scathing analysis. His first book raised some hackles, but the actor lampooned went on to dominate Tamil politics for decades. So perhaps could Vijay.

Vijay’s caste constituency is rather nebulous—he is the son of an inter-faith marriage, his mother Shobha is Hindu, his father a Catholic Christian. Both parents reportedly trace their lineage to Vellalar, a land-owning dominant caste. The actor used to be Chandrasekaran Joseph Vijay but went with just Vijay after becoming an established star.

His father has claimed that while admitting Vijay in school, he had insisted on identifying his son only as Tamil, with no religion or caste attached. That position could come politically handy now, but the flip side is that Vijay cannot seek votes in the name of any caste, even sotto voce, as most other parties do, though some Christian groupings are said to be campaigning for him, stressing his father is a Catholic.

So essentially, Vijay has no caste or religious identity, no firm political convictions, and no alliances. How is he going to fare? The general perception, of course, is that he might prove a magnet for first-time voters, but how many of them are there and how many will make it to the polling booth?

The million-dollar question is what Vijay’s party will finally achieve. Will it wean away disaffected DMK voters to the NDA’s benefit? Or will it take away women and young voters from the NDA? In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SPA secured 47 per cent votes, the AIADMK and DMDK got 23 per cent, and the NDA got 18.24 per cent. As per an estimate in The Hindu, even after making allowances for anti-incumbency, the NDA will require a minimum of 5 percentage points to give a respectable fight and only the TVK can bridge this gap.

So, is Vijay’s role just to tilt the scales one way or another or will he pull off a major surprise? Even if he becomes leader of the single largest party in the Assembly, it would be a significant achievement. At the moment, suffice it to say that the crowds he attracts seem to indicate that Vijay is emerging as a political force.

The author is a Chennai-based senior journalist.

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