It was a Monday afternoon in Rajabari, a village in Assam’s Sivasagar district—the land from where Ahom kings once ruled. The quiet murmur of everyday life, surrounded by rice paddy fields and livestock, broke to slogans of “BJPzindabad [long live BJP].”

Around 16 women in traditional mekhela chadors walked through the narrow village road carrying the party’s flags. They turned into a house from which 80-year-old Kanaklata Buragohain and her daughter-in-law, Ireen Gogoi, emerged.

“Whatever assistance the public needs, they have given. Every household has received something or the other. They have given work to some people,” Kanaklata told Frontline. “Just, we haven’t gotten jobs in this house. Only my son could avail the scheme for farmers.”

Her remark lays bare the painful reality of Assam’s economy as it heads to the polls on April 9. The ruling BJP government’s expanding network of cash transfer schemes—from Orunodoi for women to student stipends and self-employment grants—has gained visible traction among voters. Frontline’s analysis of economic data and conversations with voters across multiple constituencies and economists suggest that this popularity is rooted in a deeper malaise: stagnant incomes, widening rural-urban gaps, and a labour market increasingly defined by informal, low-quality work.

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“The considered opinion of researchers is that, in most cases, the direct benefit transfer is for short-term benefit. For political parties, it is easy to put that on hoardings and billboards, advertise them,” said Debarshi Das, an economist based in Guwahati. “As compared to other sources of expenditure—for instance, building schools or mid-day meal schemes—which the government is supposed to do. But they are getting sidelined.”

A shrinking share of India’s economy

Assam has long been imagined as the gateway to India’s eastern and south-eastern economies. Between 1991 and 2021-22, its share in India’s nominal GDP fell from 2.6 per cent to 1.8 per cent, according to NITI Aayog’s Macro and Fiscal Landscape of the State of Assam. It rose modestly to 2.09 per cent in 2025-26, per the Economic Survey of Assam.

During a press conference on January 1, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma cited RBI data and said that Assam’s economy had grown by 45 per cent over the preceding five years. “The per capita income (at current prices) in the State has also seen a significant increase, rising by 54 per cent from Rs.1,03,371 in 2020-21 to Rs.1,59,185 in 2024-25,” he said.

Adjusted for inflation, Assam’s 2024-25 per capita income (advance estimate) stood at Rs. 85,503—a 35.8 per cent increase from 2020-21. The State ranked 23rd out of 32 States and Union Territories (except Gujarat), according to RBI’s 2023-2024 per capita net State Domestic Product figures.

“On the count of per capita income, Assam is not in a good state right now; it is below the national average,” said Debarshi Das. “Growth rate does not tell me about distribution, about whether the people at the bottom will be able to share the fruits of high growth. One telltale sign that they have not been doing well is the fact that the government is compelled in some way to distribute income through other channels, i.e. cash transfers.”

Data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey reinforces this point. Between 2009-10 and 2023-24, monthly per capita consumption expenditure for households surveyed rose from Rs. 1,003 to Rs. 3,793 in rural areas and from Rs. 1,755 to Rs. 06,794 in urban areas. While these figures point to rising incomes, both remained below the national average. The urban-rural gap in Assam widened from 75 per cent to 79.1 per cent over the same period.

According to the 2011 Census, 86 per cent of Assam’s population of 3.12 crore lived in rural areas, with most relying on agriculture, small-scale enterprises, and blue-collar jobs. Between 2017-18 and 2022-23, per the Periodic Labour Force Survey, the share of workers in agriculture and construction increased while it fell in manufacturing, services, and other industries.

“More importantly, there is a growing trend of casualisation and informalisation across all sectors. Many individuals are engaged in multiple activities yet continue to lack adequate income security,” said Joydeep Baruah, a professor at the Krishna Kanta Handiqui State Open University in Guwahati. Another consequence, Baruah said, has been out-migration from rural to urban areas, which would only depress wages and income levels in cities.

In December 2025, the BJP government announced it had given nearly 1.5 lakh people jobs. With the election approaching, it promised to recruit a further 2.5 lakh if voted back to power. But the signs of uneven growth were visible in places Frontline visited—the Demow constituency in Sivasagar district and the Makum constituency in Tinsukia.

Labanya Konwar, a resident of Demow’s Konwar Dehingia village, said, “I have three sons. My youngest has a B.A. degree. He could not secure a job yet. My other son is a plumber. We get salt and rice from the government, but apart from that we have nothing.”

Sunamika Moran, 29, a postgraduate degree holder from Dhulijan village in Makum constituency, Tinsukia district, has been unable to secure a government job. “I sat for the Central Teacher Eligibility Test and the Assam Direct Recruitment Examination, but could not get through,” she said. Sunamika holds a private-sector job that pays Rs. 7,000-Rs. 8,000 a month, which she uses to support her mother and brother. The family also farms three bighas of rice land. “I will vote for BJP. They have given jobs to some people in my community,” she said.

“Data from recent rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey indicate that a majority of individuals earn between Rs.8,000 and Rs.10,000 per month on average, regardless of sector or type of employment,” said Joydeep Baruah.

The promise of turning the State into a manufacturing and service sector hub for the region has not materialised, despite Assam’s geographic advantages in India’s northeast. Unable to convert this potential into broad-based growth, the BJP government, which has been in power since 2016, turned to cash transfers.

Cash doles pour in ahead of polls

In 2020, the Assam government announced the Orunodoi scheme, a direct benefit programme through which women from economically vulnerable households receive money in their bank accounts. It was launched on October 2, 2020—a year before the 2021 Assembly election in which the BJP retained power and Himanta Biswa Sarma was chosen as Chief Minister, succeeding Sarbananda Sonowal.

Since then, a series of cash transfer schemes followed: the Nijut Moina scheme for girl students from higher secondary to the postgraduate level; Nijut Babu Asoni for male postgraduate students; Jibon Prerana for fresh graduates; and Mukhya Mantri Udyamita Abhiyaan, which provides seed capital to women in self-help groups.

Key cash transfer schemes in Assam

Source: Assam Budget 2025-26 and 2026-27

Across the six constituencies Frontline visited—Makum and Doom Dooma in Tinsukia district, Dhing and Nagaon-Batadraba in Nagaon district, Diphu in Karbi Anglong district, and Demow in Sivasagar district—these schemes, or asoni, have become the talking points among voters.

For many, the schemes have provided essential help. Ritamoni Gogoi, a BJP supporter from Bahuabari village, said: “I received Rs.2,000 and Rs.9,000 through two schemes, including Orunodoi. I am building a small grocery shop now. It would not have been possible before.”

In Diphu, in the tribal district of Karbi Anglong, women inside Biren Teron Memorial Market Complex largely expressed support for the incumbent party, though with reservations. “I got Rs. 10,000 from the government through the scheme for self-help groups,” said Monjir Tissopi, a vegetable vendor. “But I have not received any other assistance like Orunodoi or even a ration card, despite applying for it a year ago.”

For others, the assistance never arrived. Women in Bechamari village in the Muslim-dominated Dhing constituency, Nagaon district, said they had not been able to avail themselves of any of the cash transfer schemes. “The government has not given us anything. Our names come in the Orunodoi list, but no one has gotten the money. I will have to see who I vote for,” said 26-year-old Tahmina Begum. She and other women from the village also raised concerns about the state of government schools and medical facilities.

Other voters questioned whether the doles were bridging gaps in development. “With this free money, the students might stop listening to their parents and spend recklessly. Although here we have students who cannot access basic necessities, and it might be good for them,” said Apurba Kumar Deka, a teacher at the government-run Demow Higher Secondary School. “They should not give these asoni. Instead, they should appoint a sports or a music teacher at the school.”

Where is the money coming from?

It was an overcast, rainy Saturday (April 4), but the drizzle did little to dampen the small crowd gathered outside a house in Konwar Dehingia village, Demow constituency, to hear the Congress candidate Ajoy Gogoi speak. Addressing the residents, Ajoy spoke about rising prices, increased taxes—including land taxes under the current government—and concerns surrounding cash transfer schemes.

A Congress worker and local resident, Ridip Konwar, present at the meeting, told Frontline, “This is an asoni sarkar [a government that doles out schemes]. But where is this money coming from? The voters do not know it is coming from a loan.”

It is a worry a few voters expressed: the burden these cash schemes stand to place on Assam’s exchequer. Assam’s outstanding liabilities by March 2025 stood at Rs. 1,78,058.9 crore, projected to rise to Rs. 2,06,608.3 crore by March 2026, per the RBI’s data. As a percentage of gross State domestic product, the liabilities stood at 27.9 per cent.

Joydeep Baruah, citing the Assam Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, contended that the State could sustain a public debt level of up to around 32 per cent of its GSDP. “Moreover, the State’s official GSDP estimates indicate robust growth, providing a reasonable window for undertaking additional public borrowing,” he said.

Debarshi Das concurred that the fiscal impact on government finances “has not been that grave”. “Assam is very good in terms of fiscal discipline. Be it the Congress or the BJP government, they toe the line set by the Centre. But this means that the State government has been hard on its spendings and ends up choking spendings in rural development, agriculture, and so on,” he said.

Assam’s budget data for 2023-24 bear this out. Actual spending fell short of allocated amounts across sectors: social welfare and nutrition saw a 26.6 per cent shortfall; rural development, 34 per cent; welfare of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs, and minorities, 45.1 per cent; and transport, 36.5 per cent.

Assam: Budget estimates vs actuals, 2023-24 (in Rs. crore)

Source:PRS Legislative Research’s Assam Budget Analysis 2025-26

The State’s budget draws around 60-65 per cent of revenue from Central transfers—through Finance Commission devolution and Centrally Sponsored Schemes—about 12-15 per cent from public debt, and the remainder from its own revenue sources, according to Joydeep Baruah.

“As the State government continues to finance major cash transfer programmes from its own resources, the fiscal space available for spending on sectors like health, education, and rural development becomes increasingly constrained. Consequently, much of the expenditure in these sectors is largely driven by Central schemes,” he said.

The economists Frontline spoke to agreed that long-term growth required investment across sectors—particularly in agriculture—supported by an industrial policy with appropriate incentives and a conducive regulatory framework.

For now, with little on the horizon, it is the cash doles alone that give families like Kanaklata Buragohain’s and Sunamika Moran’s the hope of better days in Assam.

Angana Chakrabarti is a Guwahati-based independent multimedia journalist. She primarily covers the north-eastern region.

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