Can we predict how these two communities will vote in the upcoming election?

The situation in the constituencies dominated by the Adivasi tea tribes on one hand and Muslim voters on the other remains more or less the same as before.

There might be some changes in the Adivasi tea tribe-dominated areas. But, on the whole, the BJP will get the support of a large segment of this community because the BJP-led State government has worked to empower it and help it economically. The community is known for their en masse, en bloc voting pattern. If the pattern remains intact, the community will play a major role in deciding the outcome of the election in favour of the BJP.

However, certain sections of the community are likely to remain pro-Congress, as they traditionally have been, due to the role played by the Indian National Trade Union Congress in the tea gardens.

My studies in Doom Dooma, Behali, Rangapara, Sarupathar, and other constituencies show that voters change their mind overnight. This is what happened in the 2016 Assembly election. It may or may not happen this time but the fact remains that the BJP has made inroads into the voting bloc of the Adivasi tea tribes, once dominated by the Congress. This is a significant development.

As regards the Muslim community of Assam, it is not a monolithic demographic category. There are three categories of Muslims in the State: Bengali Muslims from the Barak Valley; indigenous or Tholua Muslims from the Brahmaputra valley; immigrant Muslims with roots in East Bengal [sometimes called Miya Muslims derogatively]. Because of recent developments against Muslim groups in general, and the BJP-led hate campaign against the Miya community in particular, Muslims, irrespective of categories, might lean strongly towards the Congress this time.

What are the key issues influencing the choices of these communities?

The granting of land pattas and the building of infrastructure, such as schools and roads, will be factors determining voters’ choice in the tea garden–dominated areas. Over the last 10 years, the BJP government has done a lot of good work in the gardens, developing infrastructure, increasing wages, and granting land pattas.

A recent survey conducted by non-profits among Muslims in Assam suggested that 79 per cent of them favour Gaurav Gogoi of the Congress. The BJP’s sustained hate campaign against Muslims is the reason behind this stance.

In private conversations with Muslims from different parts of Assam, I have encountered overwhelming animosity towards the BJP. They cite several reasons for this. When you do not recognise the Sufi saint Azan Fakir as an icon of religious harmony; when Bagh Hazarika [Ismail Siddique, a 17th century commander who is considered a hero of the indigenous Muslim communities of Assam], a symbol of heroism, is dismissed as fiction; when the name of the ex-President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed is removed from the name of the medical college in Barpeta, why should the community vote for the BJP in the forthcoming election? I think they will vote for any political party other than the BJP.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s denial of the existence of Bagh Hazarika is said to have antagonised the indigenous Assamese Muslims. He is accused of trying to insult the Muslim community in various ways. But he is also trying to change his stance.

After coming to power, Sarma invited organisations of indigenous Muslims to a meeting and promised to preserve their identity, culture, and heritage while working for their social upliftment. He has been hostile towards the Miya community.

In more recent times, however, Sarma has said that the Miyas are not his enemies if, for instance, they say no to “love jihad” and “fertilizer jihad” [a controversial term coined by Sarma to allege that Miya Muslims are deliberately using excessive chemicals and fertilizers in vegetables to cause health issues among consumers and increase profits] and adopt family planning. This shift probably comes from his recognition of the danger inherent in antagonising Muslims, who are likely to vote for the Congress if they are disgruntled with the BJP.

As regards young voters across various communities, the issues they are concerned about are livelihood generation, social security and development, and the rise of communal politics.

There was a decline in the influence of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) among Muslim voters of East Bengal origin in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Will the trend continue in this election? Which party stands to gain from this shift?

The AIUDF will not get the vote of Muslims in many constituencies. Their slogan-mongering and posturing as the protectors of the community are not going to impress the voters. If you go to Hatsingimari [the administrative headquarters of the South Salmara-Mankachar district, which is part of the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency] where Muslim voters are in the majority, you will find that the local people are not ready to favour Badruddin Ajmal, the founding president of the AIUDF [he was MP from the Dhubri constituency from 2009 to 2024].

Ajmal is in search of a safe constituency elsewhere now. The 2024 general election, where Ajmal was defeated by Rakibul Hussain of the Congress in Dhubri, showed this trend. The same applies to Barpeta, where there are a fair number of East Bengal–origin Muslims. They may not vote en bloc for the AIUDF this time. Their support might shift to the Congress.

How will the delimitation of constituencies impact the electoral outcome in the constituencies decided by the two communities?

It is not going to alter electoral politics in a significant way. It might cause a slight shift, that is all.

Anything you want to add about the factors to look out for?

The Zubeen Garg issue will play a decisive role in the outcome of the forthcoming election. The slogan “Justice for Zubeen Garg” is still active, six months after the death of the cultural icon. There are people who feel that the present government has not done enough to investigate his death.

Many fans of Garg are of the opinion that powerful people in the State involved in his death are being protected by the ruling party. This might be wrong, but like thousands of people in Assam, I too feel that those responsible for Garg’s death should not go unpunished.