What is unique about the coming elections?

This is the only election where the main opposition party wants to win by deleting [the names of] voters and the ruling party wants to retain the names of all categories of voters, including the dead and illegal immigrants. Generally, we see the opposition trying to increase its scope for votes, but for the first time in the history of India, we see the main opposition, the BJP, expecting to win on the basis of the arithmetic of decreasing the voters.

This is an election where the Election Commission of India wants to challenge the age-old electoral practice in West Bengal, and the ruling party wants to continue with the practice. The Chief Election Commissioner [Gyanesh Kumar] made it clear to the top brass of the State administration in a recent meeting that he wants to change the image of West Bengal, with particular reference to electoral violence.

It is creating one mechanism after another to counter the electoral culture of the State, not just violence but also intimidation of voters and polling agents, people being prevented from voting, proxy vote, and unrestrained use of money and muscle power. This system has continued unchallenged and has become institutionalised in the State.

This time, either a new election culture will be introduced in the State, or the prevalent electoral malpractice will continue indefinitely. Also, for the first time we see how local and global issues can impact the election. In the review work that my team is conducting at the grassroots, we have seen that many are holding the BJP government at the Centre responsible for the scarcity of LPG cylinders.

Another interesting feature of this election is that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has started creating the second generation of “freebies” beneficiaries in the State just ahead of the election. After the introduction of schemes such as Kanyashree, Rupashree, Sabooj Sathi, and Lakshmir Bhandar, we see a new scheme for the new generation of beneficiaries: Yuva Sathi, an allowance for the unemployed aged between 21 and 40. This election will determine whether this patron-client relationship between the government and beneficiaries will prevail over the larger issue of governance.

How far do you think this much-hyped Yuva Sathi scheme will help the Trinamool?

More than 90 lakh have applied for it. And this section comprises only those who have studied till the class X finals. The dropout rate for students under class X is 45 per cent. These people will not fall under this scheme. They usually go out of the State... as migrant labourers. The Yuva Sathi is for those with basic school education.

We have, in fact, carried out a survey on Yuva Sathi, and our preliminary findings show three different reactions. First, those who are still studying and are below the age of 25 welcome this scheme; it is helping them out in different ways. This accounts for about 40 per cent of the samples we have taken.

Among the remaining 60 per cent, half of the beneficiaries—those aged between 25 and 35—gave mixed reactions: 50 per cent were satisfied, while the rest were unhappy with the State government for not being able to provide employment.

The remaining half of this section [those above 35] was unhappy with the government in spite of the dole. Interestingly, however, around 20 per cent of this dissatisfied lot are Muslim and will vote for the Trinamool just to keep the BJP out.

At a rally led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee protesting against the hike in the price of LPG cylinders, in Kolkata, on March 16, 2026. | Photo Credit: PTI

Do you see polarisation impacting the election in a big way this time?

For the past 10 years, identity politics has been governing West Bengal. From the broad perspective of Hindus and Muslims, sub-identity groups among Hindus are getting increasingly important in State politics. The Matua community, the Rajbanshis, the Namasudras—all want their own political space outside the main Hindu umbrella. Similarly, among the Muslims, an educated, urban middle class has emerged that is now looking for its own political voice and its own political organisation.

The BJP’s challenge is to accommodate all the sub-identities under the broad Hindu umbrella. It made Ananta Maharaj [a separatist Rajbanshi leader from Cooch Behar] a Rajya Sabha member, but he keeps siding with the Trinamool. Similarly, it is finding it difficult to bracket the tribal community within its broad Hindu platform, as a result of which it has fared poorly in the last few elections in the tribal areas of the Jangalmahal [the contiguous forested area of Jhargram, Paschim Medinipur, Purulia, and Bankura].

The BJP here, particularly Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, is pushing an aggressive brand of Hindutva by trying to project that Hindus are in crisis, repeatedly pointing to communal disturbances in Murshidabad and other places. I do not think that such aggressive Hindutva will work in uniting all the Hindu subsects. Moreover, the BJP did not keep some of the promises it made to several of these Hindu subsects.

For example, in 2021 it promised a Narayani Sena battalion for Cooch Behar but did not deliver. In 2024, the BJP lost the Cooch Behar Lok Sabha seat. If the BJP had focussed more on the issue of governance than on Hindutva, I would say it would have been in a much stronger position today. It seems to have taken up a mixed-method strategy, where Suvendu pushes aggressive Hindutva while State BJP president Samik Bhattacharya focusses on governance. It remains to be seen how this works [out].

The BJP has never really managed to project an alternative to Trinamool rule. Recently, Prime Minster Modi held a rally in Singur, where a massive crowd had gathered, but he did not speak of any industrial resurgence, and the people were very disappointed. Moreover, whatever the Centre has done in the State, the State BJP has not been able to communicate that to the voters.

Mamata’s challenge is to address the growing demand for identity among Muslims and retain their votes, and she is using the SIR exercise to do that. Some weeks ago, there was enormous enthusiasm over the construction of a “Babri Masjid” in Beldanga by the Muslim leader Humayun Kabir, but that enthusiasm has been neutralised by Mamata’s SIR agitation. The split that was expected earlier in the Muslim community does not seem to be taking place..

Who do you think will win this time?

When the Trinamool sits for the exam, it will be attempting to answer 100 per cent of the question paper; the BJP will be attempting 65 per cent [35 per cent being the Muslim population]. The BJP will have to secure 45 per cent while attempting 65 per cent, whereas the Trinamool will have to score 45 per cent while attempting 100.

There are 145 out of 294 seats where the Muslim population is between 20 per cent and 96 per cent. The BJP will have to fight for the remaining 149 seats. In other words, its strike rate has to be over 80 per cent.

The situation is much easier for the Trinamool: winning 60 per cent of the Muslim seats and 30 per cent of the rest will be enough for it to come to power.

The arithmetic is not in favour of the BJP. But if it gets 120 seats, then we can be certain that there was a huge wind blowing for change, but it could not work out because the Muslims did not have any alternative.